Voters want security and growth: Eep
Voters want security and growth: Eep
Moch. N. Kurniawan, Jakarta
Voters in the upcoming presidential election are likely to vote
for candidates who can ensure security and economic growth, a
noted political analyst says.
Eep Saefullah Fattah of the University of Indonesia told an
international seminar on Tuesday that with such preferences,
candidates with military backgrounds stood a better chance of
winning the country's first direct presidential election.
Two of five presidential aspirants participating in the July 5
election are retired Army generals -- Wiranto and Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono. Three others -- Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais,
and Hamzah Haz -- are all civilians.
A number of surveys have ranked Susilo, who was coordinating
minister for political and security affairs under the leadership
of former president Abdurrahman Wahid and incumbent Megawati
Soekarnoputri, as the strongest presidential candidate.
Trailing behind Susilo are Wiranto and incumbent Megawati
respectively. Amien Rais, who is also speaker of the country's
highest legislative body, the People's Consultative Assembly
(MPR), ranks fourth, while the incumbent Vice President, Hamzah
Haz, is coming fifth.
Eep further said that innate divisive forces would be the
second factor to influence voters in their presidential choices.
Meanwhile, Ricardo Carreras Lario, president of U.S.-based
Campaigns International organization, said the personality of
presidential candidates would also influence voters.
He, however, stressed that pleasant personality should be
supported by a good political party and adequate campaign funds.
Eep predicted that Susilo would likely win the first round of
the presidential election, with either Wiranto or Megawati in
second place.
"Susilo, Wiranto and Megawati will compete to pass the first
round of the presidential election on July 5," he told an
international seminar on Management, Strategy and Communication
for Political Campaigns jointly organized by the Management
Institute of University of Indonesia's School of Economics and
George Washington University.
He, however, said that increasing antimilitary sentiment could
undercut Susilo's popularity.
"Susilo's supporters, who are mostly intellectual people, may
change their preference because of such sensitive issues," he
said.
According to Eep, the antimilitary sentiment would not really
affect Wiranto's presidential chances as he would gain votes from
people in the grass roots. Wiranto is nominated by Golkar, the
winner of the April 5 legislative election.
Megawati, who has loyal supporters, still has to deal with her
husband, Taufik Kiemas, who often makes controversial statements.
"Luckily, Taufik has been silent lately, although it may be
because of his illness," he said.
Amien's chances of winning the election appear slim,
particularly due to Hamzah's decision to run for the presidency.
"Most voters in the United Development Party (PPP) would have
voted for Amien if Hamzah had not registered as a presidential
candidate," he said.
"But with Hamzah's candidacy, Amien's chances of winning the
election are small."