Voters want security and growth: Eep

Moch. N. Kurniawan, Jakarta

Voters in the upcoming presidential election are likely to vote for candidates who can ensure security and economic growth, a noted political analyst says.

Eep Saefullah Fattah of the University of Indonesia told an international seminar on Tuesday that with such preferences, candidates with military backgrounds stood a better chance of winning the country's first direct presidential election.

Two of five presidential aspirants participating in the July 5 election are retired Army generals -- Wiranto and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Three others -- Megawati Soekarnoputri, Amien Rais, and Hamzah Haz -- are all civilians.

A number of surveys have ranked Susilo, who was coordinating minister for political and security affairs under the leadership of former president Abdurrahman Wahid and incumbent Megawati Soekarnoputri, as the strongest presidential candidate.

Trailing behind Susilo are Wiranto and incumbent Megawati respectively. Amien Rais, who is also speaker of the country's highest legislative body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), ranks fourth, while the incumbent Vice President, Hamzah Haz, is coming fifth.

Eep further said that innate divisive forces would be the second factor to influence voters in their presidential choices.

Meanwhile, Ricardo Carreras Lario, president of U.S.-based Campaigns International organization, said the personality of presidential candidates would also influence voters.

He, however, stressed that pleasant personality should be supported by a good political party and adequate campaign funds.

Eep predicted that Susilo would likely win the first round of the presidential election, with either Wiranto or Megawati in second place.

"Susilo, Wiranto and Megawati will compete to pass the first round of the presidential election on July 5," he told an international seminar on Management, Strategy and Communication for Political Campaigns jointly organized by the Management Institute of University of Indonesia's School of Economics and George Washington University.

He, however, said that increasing antimilitary sentiment could undercut Susilo's popularity.

"Susilo's supporters, who are mostly intellectual people, may change their preference because of such sensitive issues," he said.

According to Eep, the antimilitary sentiment would not really affect Wiranto's presidential chances as he would gain votes from people in the grass roots. Wiranto is nominated by Golkar, the winner of the April 5 legislative election.

Megawati, who has loyal supporters, still has to deal with her husband, Taufik Kiemas, who often makes controversial statements.

"Luckily, Taufik has been silent lately, although it may be because of his illness," he said.

Amien's chances of winning the election appear slim, particularly due to Hamzah's decision to run for the presidency.

"Most voters in the United Development Party (PPP) would have voted for Amien if Hamzah had not registered as a presidential candidate," he said.

"But with Hamzah's candidacy, Amien's chances of winning the election are small."