Voters can swing from supporters to detractors

Umar Juoro, Jakarta

The early results of last Monday's presidential election clearly show that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will win the presidency convincingly with about 60 percent of the vote. We see again the overwhelming expression of the voters for change.

Actually, the voters who chose Susilo do not yet even know the details of his programs. In other words, the popularity of the candidate counted more than his manifesto.

Meanwhile, the voters gave the thumbs down to incumbent President Megawati, not because she was unpopular, but due to the disappointing performance of her government.

This clearly shows Indonesian voters behaved asymmetrically towards the presidential candidates. They elected Susilo mainly on the back of his personal popularity and the strong desire for change and voted down the incumbent president for her poor performance.

This same situation is likely to happen again in the 2009 presidential election when voters will reelect or reject the incumbent, Susilo, based on his performance, not his personal popularity. This means his administration's ability to solve the main problems that the country faces, such as the economy, unemployment, and corruption, will determine the fate of his presidency.

The first challenge Susilo faces is to assemble a capable and solid cabinet consisting not only of men and women who are knowledgeable and experienced in their fields, but also who are be able to deal with the political hurdles posed by the House of Representatives, vested-interest groups, and local administrations.

One of the issues is whether Susilo will retain the current Finance Minister Boediono. If Boediono is retained, there is a serious potential conflict in policy approaches as he has been known to favor a consistently conservative fiscal stance, while Jusuf Kalla is known for his expansive fiscal policies.

Similarly, the issue of synergy between ministers with professional backgrounds and who have political party backing should be addressed early on and properly in order to create a well-orchestrated cabinet.

In dealing with the House, Susilo's administration will face a serious problem. His Democrartic Party-led coalition has a minority in the House with the majority of seats held jointly by the newly formed opposition of the Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P.

A comprise solution by accommodating party leaders from Golkar and PDI-P in his cabinet would not guarantee good cooperation and relationships between the executive and the legislative branches. But Susilo could still consider including Golkar in his ruling coalition as this party may drop its current chairman Akbar Tandjung at its national congress in November.

Developing a coalition with Golkar would give the necessary support in the House for the Susilo administration in pushing ahead with its legislative agenda and other strategic policy measures that require the House's endorsement.

Susilo will also encounter many problems in provincial and regional legislatures as they are also mostly dominated by Golkar and the PDI-P.

For example, the alliance of Susilo's Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which controls majority seats in the Jakarta legislature, failed recently to make the PKS candidate the speaker of the City Council. He lost to a Golkar candidate from a minority faction in the council.

Susilo's coalition with Golkar, at least in the post-Akbar era, would strengthen support for Susilo's administration in dealing with local administrations, especially with regards to concentrated efforts to create a conducive environment for investment.

Susilo will find it much easier in dealing with the business community. The only thing that has to be clarified is the misunderstanding among Indonesian Chinese entrepreneurs that his vice president Jusuf Kalla would implement an affirmative action policy in favor of indigenous-run (pribumi) businesses at the expense of the Chinese.

In regards to labor issues, Susilo should be assisted by a manpower minister capable of convincing trade unions of the importance of flexible labor rules to stimulate businesses and new investments in order to create more jobs. Handling labor issues is a very difficult job in this open political environment.

Finally, Susilo should demonstrate his resoluteness to strengthen law enforcement and combat corruption in order to improve his credibility.

It is better for Susilo's attorney general and chief of police to initially zero in on a carefully selected number of high- profile corruption cases with a high probability of verdicts to build up public's confidence in the campaign against graft.

It is well-advised for Susilo to realize that what is important for the voters is the result. Voters in a direct presidential election system can change quickly from being supporters to detractors if their elected president fails to deliver on his promises early on.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Habibie Center.