Volatility Remains High, IHSG Briefly Opens Lower Before Rising 0.35%
The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) opened in the red during Thursday’s trading (25/6/2026) before eventually bouncing back into positive territory. At 09.00 WIB, the IHSG opened at 5,873.07 before moving down to 5,865.73, a decline of 18.20 points or -0.31%. However, by 09.02 WIB, the IHSG had risen 0.35% to 5,904.28. A total of 177 stocks advanced, 194 declined, and 588 remained stagnant. Transaction value was recorded at Rp235.4 billion, with a volume of 331.9 million shares traded in 38,560 transactions.
Entering Thursday’s trading, the IHSG’s movement is expected to remain influenced by sentiment from MSCI’s review, which maintained Indonesia’s classification as an Emerging Market. This decision eased market concerns over the potential for massive foreign capital outflows had Indonesia’s status been downgraded to Frontier Market. Nevertheless, MSCI still provided notes regarding share ownership transparency, alleged coordinated trading, and the effectiveness of capital market reform implementation, which will be re-evaluated in November 2026.
Domestically, the Financial Services Authority (OJK) and the government view MSCI’s decision as reflecting continued strong confidence from global investors in Indonesia’s financial markets. The OJK affirmed it will continue reforms to strengthen market integrity and transparency, while the government considers MSCI’s further evaluation a normal process.
On the external side, investor attention is shifting to the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s main reference in determining the direction of interest rate policy. If PCE inflation shows another increase, expectations for higher-for-longer interest rates could strengthen, driving a stronger US dollar and higher Treasury yields, potentially triggering pressure on risk assets including the IHSG and the rupiah. Additionally, the market is also awaiting weekly US jobless claims data to gauge the latest condition of the labour market. A combination of persistently high inflation and a solid labour market could reinforce the view that the Fed does not yet have room to cut interest rates soon.
Amid these sentiments, the US dollar index, which has breached the 101.609 level, continues to limit room for the rupiah and domestic stock market to strengthen, in line with increasing pressure on capital flows to developing countries. According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah was forced to remain in the red after closing 0.50% weaker at Rp17,925 per US dollar on Wednesday (25/6/2026). With this position, the Garuda currency has not been able to escape pressure and has weakened for four consecutive trading days.