Violence in Southern Thailand not likely linked to al Qaeda, JL
Violence in Southern Thailand not likely linked to al Qaeda, JL
Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore
A wave of violence in mainly Muslim southern Thailand is inspired
by money and nationalism and shows scant evidence of links to a
wider network with Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda and its Jamaah
Islamiyah (JI) Asian affiliate.
The violence, part of an insurgency that has simmered for
decades, nevertheless presents a disturbing challenge to a
government so far spared the unrest that troubles such neighbors
as Indonesia and the Philippines, analysts said on Friday.
"As far as I'm concerned there is no concrete evidence of
links between these groups and international terrorism," said
Steve Wilford of Control Risks in Singapore.
"Their modus operandi (MO) -- attacking army depots and
schools -- is not a similar MO to other groups attacking Western
targets," he said.
Analysts say it is possible that several of those involved in
the latest violence gained their spurs in Afghanistan, but
discount any close links with al-Qaeda.
The choice of targets was a crucial clue to the motives of the
Thai insurgents and to their absence of real ties to al-Qaeda,
which is blamed for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, and to JI --
accused of the October 2002 Bali bombings.
"There are plenty of foreigners in the south but they don't
target Westerners," said Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defense
and Strategic Studies in Singapore.
Thailand was stunned by Sunday's coordinated raid on an army
weapons depot, and the killing of four soldiers, and arson
attacks on 21 schools. Schools have long been a target of Muslim,
Malay-speaking rebels, who see them as symbols of the rule of the
mostly-Buddhist country's central government.
"If al-Qaeda were linked you would see use of sophisticated
materials and the schools wouldn't just be torched but blown up
with the pupils inside," Tan said.
Some Thai officials take a different view.
Gen. Kitti Rattanachaya, a former army commander in the south
and now a government security adviser, said links between
militants in the region went back to the Soviet occupation of
Afghanistan, when many foreign Muslims joined the mujahideen,
holy warrior, guerrillas.
"Those people helped in the war, returned home and set up JI
in Indonesia," and groups in Malaysia and Thailand, he said.
But Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said the attackers were
mainly involved with crime, arms smuggling and narcotics and
"commuted" between Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.
Tan cited the failure of al Qaeda, and JI, to gain ground with
separatists in Indonesia's Aceh region, or among the Moro Islamic
Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines, which has
instead opposed involvement in a wider war.
"When you look at al-Qaeda attempts to penetrate separatist
movements in Asia they have met only limited success," he said.
"Al-Qaeda thought they could spread their radical message
among Muslims eager to rebel in Asia, but these movements are not
interested in wider war."
The Thai insurgents may draw inspiration from such groups as
al-Qaeda and JI but are not believed to share similar goals, let
alone financing or training facilities.
"They get indirect inspiration through media and information
on TV and in the press," said Surin Pitsuwan, a former foreign
minister and now an opposition member of parliament from southern
Thailand.
"They could draw inspiration from the regional environment and
from far away, the Middle East and South Asia. But I doubt very
much there's external involvement."
Suggestions the insurgents get support from fellow Muslims in
Malaysia receive some credence, but even there officials say the
backing is probably limited by cooperation between the two
governments and the weakness of Malaysian groups.
"We did not see any strong links between the group in southern
Thailand and the JI, but some individuals gave assistance to JI
fugitives, like Hambali," said a Malaysian security official, who
spoke on condition of anonymity.
Hambali, the Indonesian-born suspected JI operations chief who
is thought to have masterminded the Bali bombings, was captured
in Thailand in August.
While fraternity existed between the religious movement in
southern Thailand and the Muslims across the border in northeast
Kelantan state, Malaysian security services had discovered no
more sinister links, the official said.
"The Thai separatist movement has always been nationalistic in
origin," said Tan. "The goal is not a separate Muslim state; the
goal is union with Malaysia."
Analysts said the insurgency began in the 1970s, reflecting
discrimination by the Thai government that had seen a shift in
the last two decades but which could have been revived amid the
economic difficulties engendered since the 1997 financial crisis.
The violence has sparked fears of a revived insurgency in the
south, home to most of Thailand's six million Muslims, about 10
percent of the total population.
The combination of economic problems and religious inspiration
from returnees from Afghanistan was potent.
"There are similarities with the Abu Sayaf group, from the
point of using religion and ideology as a vehicle for crime,"
said Wilford, referring to the southern Philippine Muslim group
that has increasingly turned to kidnapping and other violent
crimes to make money rather than pursue a separate state.
"But I don't think these groups have the broad popular support
structure, numbers or motivation to assume a scale to be a deep
embarrassment to the government," Wilford said.