Violence in Southern Thailand not likely linked to al Qaeda, JL

Violence in Southern Thailand not likely linked to al Qaeda, JL

Jane Macartney, Reuters, Singapore

A wave of violence in mainly Muslim southern Thailand is inspired by money and nationalism and shows scant evidence of links to a wider network with Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda and its Jamaah Islamiyah (JI) Asian affiliate.

The violence, part of an insurgency that has simmered for decades, nevertheless presents a disturbing challenge to a government so far spared the unrest that troubles such neighbors as Indonesia and the Philippines, analysts said on Friday.

"As far as I'm concerned there is no concrete evidence of links between these groups and international terrorism," said Steve Wilford of Control Risks in Singapore.

"Their modus operandi (MO) -- attacking army depots and schools -- is not a similar MO to other groups attacking Western targets," he said.

Analysts say it is possible that several of those involved in the latest violence gained their spurs in Afghanistan, but discount any close links with al-Qaeda.

The choice of targets was a crucial clue to the motives of the Thai insurgents and to their absence of real ties to al-Qaeda, which is blamed for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, and to JI -- accused of the October 2002 Bali bombings.

"There are plenty of foreigners in the south but they don't target Westerners," said Andrew Tan of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore.

Thailand was stunned by Sunday's coordinated raid on an army weapons depot, and the killing of four soldiers, and arson attacks on 21 schools. Schools have long been a target of Muslim, Malay-speaking rebels, who see them as symbols of the rule of the mostly-Buddhist country's central government.

"If al-Qaeda were linked you would see use of sophisticated materials and the schools wouldn't just be torched but blown up with the pupils inside," Tan said.

Some Thai officials take a different view.

Gen. Kitti Rattanachaya, a former army commander in the south and now a government security adviser, said links between militants in the region went back to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, when many foreign Muslims joined the mujahideen, holy warrior, guerrillas.

"Those people helped in the war, returned home and set up JI in Indonesia," and groups in Malaysia and Thailand, he said.

But Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said the attackers were mainly involved with crime, arms smuggling and narcotics and "commuted" between Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Tan cited the failure of al Qaeda, and JI, to gain ground with separatists in Indonesia's Aceh region, or among the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) in the southern Philippines, which has instead opposed involvement in a wider war.

"When you look at al-Qaeda attempts to penetrate separatist movements in Asia they have met only limited success," he said.

"Al-Qaeda thought they could spread their radical message among Muslims eager to rebel in Asia, but these movements are not interested in wider war."

The Thai insurgents may draw inspiration from such groups as al-Qaeda and JI but are not believed to share similar goals, let alone financing or training facilities.

"They get indirect inspiration through media and information on TV and in the press," said Surin Pitsuwan, a former foreign minister and now an opposition member of parliament from southern Thailand.

"They could draw inspiration from the regional environment and from far away, the Middle East and South Asia. But I doubt very much there's external involvement."

Suggestions the insurgents get support from fellow Muslims in Malaysia receive some credence, but even there officials say the backing is probably limited by cooperation between the two governments and the weakness of Malaysian groups.

"We did not see any strong links between the group in southern Thailand and the JI, but some individuals gave assistance to JI fugitives, like Hambali," said a Malaysian security official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Hambali, the Indonesian-born suspected JI operations chief who is thought to have masterminded the Bali bombings, was captured in Thailand in August.

While fraternity existed between the religious movement in southern Thailand and the Muslims across the border in northeast Kelantan state, Malaysian security services had discovered no more sinister links, the official said.

"The Thai separatist movement has always been nationalistic in origin," said Tan. "The goal is not a separate Muslim state; the goal is union with Malaysia."

Analysts said the insurgency began in the 1970s, reflecting discrimination by the Thai government that had seen a shift in the last two decades but which could have been revived amid the economic difficulties engendered since the 1997 financial crisis.

The violence has sparked fears of a revived insurgency in the south, home to most of Thailand's six million Muslims, about 10 percent of the total population.

The combination of economic problems and religious inspiration from returnees from Afghanistan was potent.

"There are similarities with the Abu Sayaf group, from the point of using religion and ideology as a vehicle for crime," said Wilford, referring to the southern Philippine Muslim group that has increasingly turned to kidnapping and other violent crimes to make money rather than pursue a separate state.

"But I don't think these groups have the broad popular support structure, numbers or motivation to assume a scale to be a deep embarrassment to the government," Wilford said.