Violence, chaos stalk Bangladeshi democracy

By Ahmed Fazl

DHAKA (DPA): The specter of violence and chaos stalks Bangladesh as its fragile democracy is put to test next week when Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her ruling Awami League step down giving up power to a caretaker government ahead of a general election.

Fears of bloody clashes between armed supporters of the ruling Awami League and those of the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have risen after a series of gunbattles and bomb attacks left over a 100 dead since April.

Many believe that the interim government headed by a retired chief justice of the country's Supreme Court which is expected to take oath on Sunday may not be able to cope with the rising tide of politically inspired violence.

Ironically, it is to prevent such violence and secure free and fair polls that the Bangladeshi constitution was amended in early 1996 to set up a non-party neutral government under the most recently retired chief justice at the time to oversee the national vote.

"It is a unique system to guarantee credible elections free from the partisan influence of political parties in power," said constitutional expert and lawyer Amirul Islam.

Under the constitution the parliament will be dissolved at midnight on Thursday on the completion of its five-year tenure -- two days before Hasina also transfers power.

Islam said the caretaker government had three months to hold polls for a new parliament with the help of the Election Commission and the army and police providing security.

The man most likely to be inducted as head of the interim government is 65-year old former chief justice Latifur Rahman who retired from the highest office in the judiciary last February.

Despite the apparently ideal situation Rahman faces a formidable challenge in this politically volatile country which had endured a decade and a half of rule by army strongmen since the former East Pakistan broke away from Islamabad in 1971.

"Political killings are on the rise and as the two main parties mount their election campaigns more violence is feared," said prominent analyst and newspaper editor Moynul Hussain.

Hussain names illegal arms, black money and rampant corruption as main obstacles to a fair election.

But others point to an absence of a democratic culture in this South Asian country of an estimated 125 million inhabitants as the real hurdle to a western style of parliamentary democracy set up in 1991.

"The level of mistrust between Prime Minister Hasina and the opposition chief Khaleda Zia is unimaginable," said a western diplomat in Dhaka. Both leaders have not spoken to each other for more than a year although they hurl threats at each other frequently.

The bitter animosity has its roots in the country's bloody contemporary history.

Hasina believes that Khaleda Zia's husband and former military ruler Gen. Zia ur Rahman had a hand in the assassination of her father and Bangladesh's founder Sheikh Mujib ur Rahman along with most members of his family in 1975.

Gen. Zia himself was brutally killed in 1981 by a group of army officers known to be pro-Mujib when he was on a tour of the southeastern port city of Chittagong.

Zia's BNP and her alliance partner the Jamaat-e-Islami have been boycotting parliament for the last two years forcing the 330-seat legislature elected in June 1996 to run without opposition lawmakers.

More than 60 percent of Bangladeshis live below the poverty line despite an yearly GDP growth of over five percent since 1996.

Economic hardships for the farmers are accentuated as bumper harvests of the staple diet depress rice prices below production costs and create problems of storage of the surplus grain in the villages.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast a slowdown of growth this year in the country where agriculture is the economic mainstay and the biggest employer.

Recurrent opposition sponsored shutdowns and street clashes amidst escalating political tension have threatened economic activities and discouraged investments.

Observers say economic stagnation can lead to political instability fanning religious extremism in the Muslim majority country.

"Islamic fundamentalism will gather strength if economic failures and political hostilities increase," said Gaziul Huq, human rights worker and cultural activist.

Underground Islamic militants have been blamed for the current spate of bomb attacks. The latest bombing incident in June left 22 activists of the ruling Awami League dead in the central Bangladesh industrial town of Narayanganj.

It is in this atmosphere that the caretaker government will find itself, making the task of governing, ensuring a free and fair election as well the transfer of power to the government to be elected a daunting one to say the least.