Video: RKAB Coal and Nickel 2026 Cuts, Is the Mining Industry Safe?
CNBC Indonesia hosted Mining Forum 2026 under the theme ‘What is the State of the Indonesian Mining Industry?’, presenting strategic dialogue that brought together regulators, policymakers, industry leaders and stakeholders. Vice Chairman for Legal and Tax at the Indonesia Mining Association (IMA), Ezra Sibarani, said in the Mining Forum 2026 that there were several developments in the domestic mining industry. One issue attracting the attention of miners is the cut in production targets for mineral and coal commodities in the RKAB 2026. RKAB 2026 sets coal production targets at 600 million tonnes, down from 790 million tonnes in 2025, while nickel production is targeted at 260–270 million tonnes, far below RKAB 2025’s 379 million tonnes. The scale of the coal production reduction has shocked miners due to the size of the cut and the lack of clarity on the criteria used to set it. Miners have already prepared investments to maximise production and meet customer commitments, so RKAB 2026 risks disrupting targets and causing losses.
Meanwhile, Irwandy Arif, Chairman of the Indonesia Mining Institute, noted that the mining sector faces several sentiments including the RI‑US and EU trade agreements related to critical minerals, Nickel Passport obligations, price decline cycles, and sudden RKAB quota policies and implications of the US–Iran conflict. He argued that the sector faces short- and medium-term pressures, and that policy measures are needed to strengthen structural integrity and transparency; without this, the mining sector could enter a crisis-like transition.
Echoing IMA, Gita Mahyarani, Executive Director of the Indonesia Coal Mining Association (APBI), said RKAB 2026 policy uncertainty has persisted for a month, with miners lacking clarity on quotas and with APBI member quotas cut by 40–80% without explanation. Sudirman Widhy, Chairman of the Indonesian Association of Mining Experts (Perhapi), added that quota reductions in RKAB 2026 disrupt long-term mine planning, which is critical for production and miners’ financial viability and could lead to worker layoffs.
Wakil Ketua Umum I ASPINDO, Ahmad Kharis, warned that 85% of coal mining work is performed by ASPINDO; if coal production falls by 25% in 2026, 25% of equipment and human resources would be idle. The uncertainty over production quotas could also affect banking and multifinance financing, further straining miners’ finances.
On RKAB 2026, Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati, Secretary of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal (Dirjen Minerba) at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), representing Tri Winarno, said RKAB 2026 is not a production cap but a production arrangement/adjustment. The policy relates to three matters: an imbalance between supply and demand that pressures prices (particularly nickel), price stability, and the sustenance of Indonesia’s mineral reserves.
Herry Permana, Assistant Deputy for Mineral and Coal Development at the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, representing Deputy for Energy and Mineral Resources Elen Setiadi, said RKAB 2026 policy is linked to energy security and Indonesia’s downstream plan.
In the view of Bambang Patijaya, Member of the Indonesian House of Representatives Commission XII, RKAB 2026 is a new policy with pros and cons; quota adjustments are not meant to restrict coal and nickel production but to sustain Indonesia’s minerba sector, and thus deserve support.
APLSI’s Chief of the Primary Energy Value Chain Committee, Ferry Dwi Nugraha, said the early 2026 RKAB dispute caused disruption to coal supplies to power plants and led to reduced supply as miners postponed shipments due to quota uncertainty.
For more details, watch the dialogue with Shafinaz Nachiar and Ezra Sibarani, and Irwandy Arif with Gita Mahyarani and Sudirman Widhy with Ahmad Kharis and Siti Sumilah Rita Susilawati with Herry Permana and Bambang Patijaya and Ferry Dwi Nugraha at Mining Forum 2026, CNBC Indonesia (Friday, 6 March 2026).