USDA cuts SE Asia corn import forecasts

USDA cuts SE Asia corn import forecasts

WASHINGTON (Reuters): Southeast Asia's economic slowdown will curb the region's demand for imported corn in 1997/98 after years of strong growth, the U.S. Agriculture Department said Wednesday.

Despite a smaller regional crop this year, total Southeast Asian corn imports are forecast to "rise only marginally," or 300,000 tons, in 1997/98, USDA said in its monthly Grain: World Markets and Trade report.

Due to region's economic problems, feed use of corn is expected to fall slightly from the 1996/97 of 13.7 million tons, while food use should "remain flat," USDA said.

However, the impact of economic slowdown on corn imports will vary from country to country, USDA said.

Malaysia's 1997/98 corn imports are now forecast at 2.4 million tons, down from the October forecast of 2.7 million - but unchanged from 1996/97, USDA said.

However, the new import forecast of 750,000 tons for Indonesia in 1997/98 is down from both the October forecast of 1.0 million and estimated imports in 1996/97 of 950,000, USDA said.

For a third Southeast Asian country, the Philippines, USDA trimmed its 1997/98 corn import forecast to 500,000 tons, from 750,000 in October.

But that is more than the estimated 450,000 tons that the Philippines imported in 1996/97, USDA said.

Similarly, USDA kept its estimate of Thailand's 1997/98 corn imports unchanged at 750,000 tonnes -- and more than double the 1996/97 level of 300,000.

After China stopped exporting corn in 1994, the value of U.S. corn shipments to Southeast Asia skyrocketed to $350 million in 1995/96. Some of that more than 50 percent increase was due to record high corn prices that year.

With China's reentry in the corn export market and lower prices this year, the value of U.S. corn sales slumped to just $158 million in the first 11 months of 1996/97, USDA said.

China's corn sales also will limit U.S. exports to the region in 1997/98, USDA said.