USDA cuts 1997/98 world cocoa output forecast by 1%
USDA cuts 1997/98 world cocoa output forecast by 1%
WASHINGTON (Reuters): The U.S. Agriculture Department on
Friday lowered its forecast of 1997/98 world cocoa production by
one percent to 2.72 million tons.
In its quarterly Tropical Products report, USDA said the
decline was due to smaller crops in the Ivory Coast, Ecuador,
Papua New Guinea and financially-struggling Indonesia.
Larger crops in Brazil, Ghana and Nigeria will partially
offset some of that decline, USDA said.
USDA raised its forecast of 1997/98 cocoa bean exports by the
major producing nations slightly to 1.855 million tons, from its
October forecast of 1.850 million.
The new 1997/98 world production forecast is one percent
higher than the revised estimate of 2.70 million tons for
1996/97. In October, USDA estimated the 1996/97 world crop at
2.71 million tons.
For the Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer, USDA pegged
the 1997/98 crop at 1.14 million tons, down from the October
estimate of 1.18 million and 7 percent below the 1995/96 record
of 1.22 million.
"The projected decrease is due to drought conditions that have
reduced prospects for the latter part of the main and the mid
crop," USDA said.
USDA kept its 1997/98 Ivory Coast cocoa bean export forecast
unchanged at 1.05 million tons.
Even with the reduced crop, total supply is larger than
previously forecast because the 1996/97 export estimate has been
lowered to 971,000 tons, from 1.01 million, USDA said.
For Ghana, Ivory Coast's neighbor and the second largest
producing nation, USDA raised its 1997/98 forecast by nine
percent to 380,000 tons based on favorable rainfall in November
and December in major producing regions.
The forecast is also 17 percent higher than estimated
production of 324,000 tons in 1996/97, USDA said.
USDA raised its forecast of Ghana's 1997/98 cocoa bean exports
to 330,000 tons, up from its October forecast of 310,000. In
1996/97, Ghana exported 285,000 tons.
Financially-troubled Indonesia is now forecast to harvest
305,000 tons of cocoa beans in 1997/98, matching the record set
in 1995/96 and repeated in 1996/97.
In October, USDA forecast Indonesia's 1997/98 crop at 325,000
tons and estimated its 1996/97 crop at 322,000 tons. The new
lower estimates reflect an "El Nio-induced drought" that reduced
bean size and insect damage, USDA said.
USDA also cut its estimate of Indonesia's 1997/98 cocoa bean
exports to 220,000 tons, from its October forecast of 231,000
tons.
The following table details USDA's cocoa bean production and
export forecasts for nine major producing nations. Figures are in
tons:
In-Country
Bean Bean Bean Processing
1997/98 Forecast Output Imports Exports Supply
-------------------------------------------------------------
Brazil March 160,000 28,000 5,200 182,800
October 152,000 24,000 7,245 168,755
Dom. Rep March 57,000 0 47,600 9,400
October 57,000 0 47,600 9,400
Ecuador March 70,000 6,000 40,000 36,000
October 85,000 0 50,000 35,000
Ghana March 380,000 15,000 330,000 65,000
October 350,000 15,000 310,000 55,000
Indonesia March 305,000 0 220,000 85,000
October 325,000 0 231,000 94,000
Ivory Coast March 1,140,000 0 1,050,000 90,000
October 1,180,000 0 1,050,000 130,000
Malaysia March 115,000 40,000 30,000 125,000
October 115,000 37,000 33,000 119,000
Mexico March 42,000 0 12,000 30,000
October 42,000 0 12,000 30,000
Nigeria March 155,000 0 120,000 35,000
October 145,000 0 110,000 35,000
Total March 2,424,000 89,000 1,854,800 658,200
October 2,451,000 76,000 1,850,845 676,155