USA watching 'troubled' Indonesia: Powell

USA watching 'troubled' Indonesia: Powell

WASHINGTON (Agencies): The United States is carefully watching
President Abdurrahman Wahid's battle against impeachment in
"troubled" Indonesia, Secretary of State Colin Powell said on
Tuesday.

Powell also told a Senate committee that Washington had
cautioned the Indonesian government to be careful not to infringe
on human rights, as its security forces tackle separatism some
observers believe could tear the country apart.

"It's a very troubled nation. We're waiting to see what
happens in the capital and the leadership of the country," Powell
told the Senate appropriations subcommittee on foreign
operations.

"We're following the situation closely ... we will be
encouraging them to use democratic processes to figure out where
they want to go in the future with respect to their leadership."

Abdurrahman is battling possible impeachment over two
financial scandals which have already seen him twice censured by
the House of Representatives.

He has vowed to seek reelection if he is impeached, a move
which may be set in motion by the House before the end of this
month.

Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, has been
battling various separatist uprisings for several years.

The prospect of the country breaking up alarms many analysts
who are nervous that given Indonesia's pivotal strategic
importance in Asia, there could be grave consequences for
regional stability.

"We recognize the importance of that very, very large country
and the important role especially that it plays in the region,"
said Powell.

"We have cautioned the government that in their effort to keep
the country together and not let it fly apart into its many
potential constituent parts they have to be very sensitive to how
they use their military force."

The government must "make sure that whatever has to be done to
retain the cohesiveness of the country is done in a way that does
not violate human rights and is not repressive or an abuse of
force", he said.

Megawati

In its annual Strategic Survey published on Wednesday, the
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
says that Indonesian Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will
replace President Wahid by legal means this year, but will be
only slightly more successful in stabilizing the sprawling
country.

The respected think tank said Megawati had aligned herself
with the military establishment in her declared bid to replace
Abdurrahman, who beat her in the 1999 presidential election.

"The burning national question for the near term is not
whether Wahid will go, but when and how," the IISS said.

It said he might step down through ill health or be overthrown
by a popular revolt as Philippines president Joseph Estrada was.

But the most likely scenario was that the People's
Consultative Assembly would impeach him during the summer and
Megawati would take over.

"A secularist like Wahid, she would face many of the same
political and religious pressures, and would probably be even
more reluctant to restructure the military," the IISS said.

"It is also hard to discern palpable differences between
Megawati and Wahid on economic policy, though some of her
advisers are resolute reformers. And she is likely to be less
inclined to negotiate with separatists in Aceh, Irian Jaya and
elsewhere."

IISS said Megawati might be more effective in running the
bureaucracy and more responsive to the legislature, "but it is
difficult to see how her promotion to the presidency would
translate into quick improvements in Indonesia's stability".