USA watching 'troubled' Indonesia: Powell
USA watching 'troubled' Indonesia: Powell
WASHINGTON (Agencies): The United States is carefully watching President Abdurrahman Wahid's battle against impeachment in "troubled" Indonesia, Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Tuesday.
Powell also told a Senate committee that Washington had cautioned the Indonesian government to be careful not to infringe on human rights, as its security forces tackle separatism some observers believe could tear the country apart.
"It's a very troubled nation. We're waiting to see what happens in the capital and the leadership of the country," Powell told the Senate appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations.
"We're following the situation closely ... we will be encouraging them to use democratic processes to figure out where they want to go in the future with respect to their leadership."
Abdurrahman is battling possible impeachment over two financial scandals which have already seen him twice censured by the House of Representatives.
He has vowed to seek reelection if he is impeached, a move which may be set in motion by the House before the end of this month.
Indonesia, the world's most populous Muslim nation, has been battling various separatist uprisings for several years.
The prospect of the country breaking up alarms many analysts who are nervous that given Indonesia's pivotal strategic importance in Asia, there could be grave consequences for regional stability.
"We recognize the importance of that very, very large country and the important role especially that it plays in the region," said Powell.
"We have cautioned the government that in their effort to keep the country together and not let it fly apart into its many potential constituent parts they have to be very sensitive to how they use their military force."
The government must "make sure that whatever has to be done to retain the cohesiveness of the country is done in a way that does not violate human rights and is not repressive or an abuse of force", he said.
Megawati
In its annual Strategic Survey published on Wednesday, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) says that Indonesian Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri will replace President Wahid by legal means this year, but will be only slightly more successful in stabilizing the sprawling country.
The respected think tank said Megawati had aligned herself with the military establishment in her declared bid to replace Abdurrahman, who beat her in the 1999 presidential election.
"The burning national question for the near term is not whether Wahid will go, but when and how," the IISS said.
It said he might step down through ill health or be overthrown by a popular revolt as Philippines president Joseph Estrada was.
But the most likely scenario was that the People's Consultative Assembly would impeach him during the summer and Megawati would take over.
"A secularist like Wahid, she would face many of the same political and religious pressures, and would probably be even more reluctant to restructure the military," the IISS said.
"It is also hard to discern palpable differences between Megawati and Wahid on economic policy, though some of her advisers are resolute reformers. And she is likely to be less inclined to negotiate with separatists in Aceh, Irian Jaya and elsewhere."
IISS said Megawati might be more effective in running the bureaucracy and more responsive to the legislature, "but it is difficult to see how her promotion to the presidency would translate into quick improvements in Indonesia's stability".