US Shows No Urgency to Pressure Nicaragua Despite Regime's Plan to End Elections

The United States government has so far shown no signs of significantly increasing pressure on Nicaragua, even though President Daniel Ortega recently stated he would end the holding of elections. Washington’s stance differs from its approach towards Cuba and Venezuela, which have been the targets of more aggressive political and economic pressure in recent months.

Kai Thaler, a professor in the Department of Global Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara, assessed that Washington’s attention towards Nicaragua still lags behind that given to Cuba or Venezuela. "For Marco Rubio, Cuba is far more important than Nicaragua. Furthermore, Nicaragua does not have natural resources like Venezuela," Thaler said.

Days after the US operation against Venezuela earlier this year, Nicaragua took a number of steps considered positive signals to Washington. The Managua government released dozens of prisoners previously requested by the US for release and re-imposed visa requirements for Cuban citizens to limit the flow of migration towards North America. On the other hand, the US imposed new sanctions last April against two of Ortega’s sons and Vice President Rosario Murillo.

According to political analyst Manuel Orozco, Director of the Migration, Remittances, and Development Programme at the Inter-American Dialogue, Washington is deliberately avoiding direct intervention for fear of triggering a wave of migration or political repression. "One interpretation is that the political stagnation within the Ortega-Murillo dictatorship will eventually trigger internal conflict, an economic slowdown, and possible social protests that the US could exploit. But if intervention occurs now, the impact on the political transition is unpredictable," he said.

Orozco added that the Sandinista regime, in power since 2007, is not currently facing significant economic pressure or social upheaval. Therefore, direct US intervention could potentially force a transition process that may not proceed as Washington hopes.

Meanwhile, Ortega continues to level harsh criticism at the US. In April, he called the sanctions against his children a "mentally insane" act and later condemned the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro as a "monstrosity". However, Thaler assessed that this attitude shows the Nicaraguan government feels secure enough, confident that Washington has not yet made the country a top priority.

Orozco believes Ortega’s anti-US rhetoric is aimed more at domestic political consumption. "It is symbolic for the internal base to show that they remain anti-imperialist. The reality is different because there is almost no expression of real solidarity with Venezuela or Cuba in Nicaragua’s foreign policy," he said.

Both analysts predict the US will focus more on a long-term pressure strategy ahead of the elections theoretically scheduled for November 2027, should Ortega not actually cancel them. According to Orozco, the sanctions imposed by Washington aim to narrow the regime’s room for manoeuvre while encouraging gradual political reform.

On the other hand, the chance of a power change from within the regime is still considered small. Thaler said Rosario Murillo now holds an increasingly dominant political role as the public activity of the 80-year-old Ortega declines. Although there is speculation about the possibility of family succession, including to their son Laureano Ortega, analysts assess the most realistic scenario in the near term remains the continuity of the Ortega-Murillo government with strong control over the security apparatus and state institutions.