U.S. presence could escalate conflict in the RP: PERC

U.S. presence could escalate conflict in the RP: PERC

Agence France-Presse, Singapore

The growing U.S. military presence in the Philippines to help the
government crush Islamic extremists could spark an escalation of
the conflict, a risk consultancy warned on Sunday.

Washington also risks getting bogged down in a protracted and
costly conflict in the southern Philippines if its role is mainly
limited to training local forces, the Political and Economic Risk
Consultancy (PERC) said.

PERC's analysis, contained in its latest Asian Intelligence
survey, came as more than 300 U.S. military engineers arrived on
the southern Philippine island of Basilan on Saturday.

Pentagon officials have said in Washington the engineers will
build landing strips and pave roads so that soldiers and supplies
can be moved more quickly in the hunt for the Abu Sayyaf kidnap-
for-ransom group.

At Manila's request, the U.S. deployed a total of 660 U.S.
troops in the Basilan area to support the hunt for the Abu Sayyaf
band, which has been linked to the al-Qaeda network of Sept. 11
terror suspect Osama bin Laden.

The U.S. troops are officially allowed only to train and
advise local troops, but can return fire if fired upon.

"The downside of bringing the global fight against terrorism
to the Philippines is that it might fail. The U.S. has so far
been unable to use its air power the way it did in Afghanistan,"
PERC said.

"It is also unable to use its own troops to carry out the
fighting. It is doubtful that the Philippines will be able to win
a quick and clear victory over the rebels if the role of the U.S.
is limited to training and advice.

"Consequently, expectations of the progress on this problem
might be too high," it added.

PERC said that by its very nature, the U.S. troop deployment
carries military risks.

"In an attempt to discredit the government and to put
Washington on the spot, rebels might target U.S. troops or force
circumstances where they are drawn into fighting," the Hong Kong-
based consultancy said.

"To the extent that Islamic militant groups outside the
country now increase monetary and other support to the Islamic
rebels in the southern Philippines to fight against this more
formidable force, there is also a risk that the whole problem of
rebel groups in the Philippines could escalate."

Should this happen, PERC warned that "the magnitude of
terrorism that has taken place to date -- mainly in the form of
kidnappings of tourists -- could take on new, more dangerous
dimensions".

Members of a waning communist rebellion and guerrillas of a
bigger Islamic insurgency, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front,
have made threats to attack US troops if they encroached in their
areas of operation.

The Philippines, a former American colony, is a "place to
watch in 2002 due to its potential to shape the US role in Asia
in the medium term," according to PERC.

U.S. success in its fight against terrorism should be a
stabilizing factor for Asia, but should Washington gets "bogged
down in a costly, protracted fight against insurgency in the
Philippines" or have its anti-terrorism efforts thwarted by
developments in the Middle East, it would be destabilizing, PERC
added.