US Population Ages: Elderly to Outnumber Children by 2029
The United States is nearing a major shift in the age structure of its population. The ageing of the baby boomer generation, combined with the long-term decline in US birth rates, is rapidly narrowing the gap between the youngest and oldest segments of the population.
This visualisation shows the significant change in that composition since 2000. At that time, the number of children under 18 was still more than double the population aged 65 and over.
The data in this visualisation is sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau and the 2023 National Population Projections.
In 2000, the number of US residents under 18 reached 72.4 million, far larger than the population aged 65 and over, which stood at just 35.1 million.
By 2025, that gap has narrowed sharply. The number of children under 18 is recorded at around 72 million, while the elderly population has reached 64.6 million.
The turning point is expected to occur in 2029. At that point, the population aged 65 and over is projected to reach 69.9 million, surpassing the number of children under 18, which is estimated at 69.3 million.
Just a year later, the gap is projected to widen further to more than 2 million, with 71.2 million elderly residents compared to 69.1 million children.
The rise in the number of elderly people in the United States over the coming years is relatively easy to predict. Everyone who will turn 65 in 2029 has already been born, including the last members of the baby boomer generation born in 1964, who will reach that age in 2029.
This means the number of US citizens entering retirement age in the next few years is largely already reflected in the current population structure. By contrast, the number of children is harder to determine because it is more influenced by changes in birth rates and migration.
The change in the US population structure is expected to occur faster than previously projected. The U.S. Census Bureau projections released in 2017 estimated that the elderly population would only surpass children around 2034. In the latest 2023 projections, that point has moved forward by five years to 2029.
One of the main factors is the continued decline in the US fertility rate, which means fewer children are entering the population. Immigration can slow the change, but it is not expected to prevent it. Across various Census Bureau scenarios, ranging from no immigration to high immigration levels, the population aged 65 and over is still projected to surpass children in the 2028-2030 period.
The gap is expected to widen further after 2029. By 2040, the population aged 65 and over is projected to reach 78.3 million, compared to 67.8 million children. By 2060, the elderly population is expected to rise to 88.8 million, while the child population falls to 64.3 million.
The change in the age structure could have broad implications for the US economy. A larger elderly population has the potential to increase demand for healthcare services and public spending, while slower growth in the young population could constrain labour supply and increase pressure on productivity and the financing of pension programmes in the future.