US Midterm Elections: Female Candidates Could Make Gains

Women make up around 51% of the US population. Yet this is not reflected in the composition of Congress, where just 28.4% of members are women.

There are currently 152 women serving in the US House of Representatives and Senate, the highest number ever recorded. A similar record can be seen at state level, where 14 of the 50 governors, or around 28%, are women.

There are several reasons why women remain relatively under-represented in Congress.

“Some of the reasons are structural: there are rules and processes in our political system that make it harder for newcomers to get in,” said Kelly Dittmar, research director at Rutgers University’s Center for American Women and Politics. “Historically, women have been newcomers.”

Senate seats are contested only once every six years. Members of the House of Representatives serve two-year terms, but there is no limit on how many times they can stand for re-election. In theory, they can remain in office for decades.

In addition, Dittmar said, election campaigns in the US are very expensive. Historically, women have had more limited access to wealthy donor networks, which are still largely dominated by men, as are many political party leaderships. Established male politicians also tend to recruit other men as new candidates. Finally, cultural bias plays a part, including “stereotypes and expectations about what women can and should do”.

The elections on 3 November will determine whether the number of women in Congress rises or falls over the next two years. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats will be contested in the midterm elections. Voters in 36 states will also choose their governors.

Democratic women dominate the US House

Women hold 125 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives. As in the Senate and among governors, they are not evenly distributed between the two major parties. There are more women in the Democratic Party than in the Republican Party: 95 Democratic women and 30 Republican women currently serve in the House.

“There is a much weaker support infrastructure for women within the Republican Party,” Dittmar said. Organisations specifically set up to recruit, train and fund women candidates are almost all aligned with the Democrats or are non-partisan, she said.

“Many Republican leaders do not see an electoral incentive or pressure” to recruit more women, she added. Diversity matters more to Democratic voters, who place greater value on having women among the representatives they elect.

Republicans currently hold a majority in the House of Representatives, giving them the right to choose the Speaker or majority leader. The position is currently held by Mike Johnson.

Only one woman has held the influential position: Democrat Nancy Pelosi, who was Speaker from 2007 to 2011 and again from 2019 to 2023.

US Senate poses a greater challenge for women

Women currently make up 27% of the US Senate, with 16 Democrats and 11 Republicans. Each of the 50 states is represented by two senators. Terms in the chamber are longer, and most senators represent far more voters than members of the House.

Dittmar said women find it even harder to win Senate seats. “For the Senate, the issue is opportunity and timing,” she said. Seats come up for election only once every six years. Of the 100 seats, only a third are contested every two years. This means women who have never served as senators have limited opportunities to enter the chamber.

Senate campaigns, which cover an entire state, are also much more expensive than campaigns for House seats. Studies show that women candidates generally have less personal wealth than male candidates.

For one Senate candidate, the November midterms could be historic. If Democrat Peggy Flanagan wins in Minnesota, she will become the first Native American woman to serve in the US Senate. Flanagan is a member of the Ojibwe, also known as the Chippewa, an Indigenous people from the Great Lakes region spanning the US and Canada.

Flanagan is currently Minnesota’s lieutenant governor. Polls suggest she is well placed, with a narrow lead over Republican rival Michele Tafoya, a former sports journalist and adviser to conservative politicians.

First Black woman governor?

Of the 14 women currently serving as governors, 10 are Democrats and four are Republicans. Six are seeking re-election, including Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who served as a spokesperson for President Donald Trump during his first term.

For the first time in US history, a Black woman could be elected governor of a state.

In Minnesota, Democrat Tim Walz, Kamala Harris’s running mate in the 2024 election, is not seeking re-election. The two leading candidates to succeed him are Democrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican Lisa DeMuth, who is also a Black woman. In Georgia, meanwhile, Black Democratic politician Keisha Lance Bottoms is running for governor.

Dittmar does not expect DeMuth to win in Minnesota, which is considered a Democratic stronghold. Klobuchar is also well known to Minnesotans, having represented the state in the US Senate since 2007.

The situation is different in Georgia, Dittmar said. “The race there is considered very close, with the odds at 50-50.” She believes Bottoms “has a strong chance of becoming the first Black woman governor”.

Former President Barack Obama is Bottoms’s most prominent supporter, while President Trump has endorsed Republican candidate Rick Jackson.