US Midterm Elections Could Shake Trump’s Leadership

Americans will assess Donald Trump’s turbulent second term in office in the midterm elections taking place on Tuesday (3 November). The result could shake Trump’s dominance in Washington. The Democrats, who oppose Trump, are expected to take control of the House of Representatives and also have a chance of winning the Senate.

If the Republicans lose control of the House, Democrats will be able to block Trump’s legislative agenda. They could also launch major investigations into his administration. A defeat in the Senate could threaten Trump’s ability to appoint Supreme Court justices and senior government officials.

The election is essentially a nationwide assessment of Trump, as public sentiment increasingly turns against the Republicans amid anger over soaring living costs and the US-Iran war.

All 435 seats in the House and 35 of the Senate’s 100 seats are being contested, along with governorships in 36 states. Democrats need to gain just three seats in the House and four in the Senate to wrest control of both chambers from the Republicans.

Trump returned to office last year promising to bring prices down. But inflation, trade tariffs and rising fuel costs due to the conflict in the Middle East have instead squeezed American households. His administration’s public approval rating stands at just 30 per cent.

Republicans on the midterm campaign trail

The Republicans have insisted that Trump’s tax cuts and tougher immigration policies will ultimately benefit Americans. They have also portrayed Democratic candidates as radical leftists.

But during his final public campaign appearance on Monday (2 November), Trump barely discussed the economy. He spent much of his time talking at length about the troubled renovation project at Washington’s Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.

“This is the final day before the midterm elections, which I think are the most important in our lives,” Trump said after speaking for 26 minutes, before returning to the renovation project.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer called it “a sad closing message”.

Even so, some Republican supporters remained confident of victory.

“We’re going to win. Actually, we may already have won,” said Yvonne Clouser, a military veteran from Texas.

US Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to halt vote count

On Monday (2 November), the day before the midterm elections, the US Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s request to temporarily halt the counting of mail-in ballots cast by more than 20,000 registered voters in California. The federal government alleged that some of the ballots might not have been cast by US citizens.

The justices rejected the emergency request just hours after it was filed by the Department of Justice. The decision overturned the government’s challenge to the disputed ballots, which could affect thousands of voters and create uncertainty over the election result.

The ruling marked another setback for Trump as Republicans fought to retain control of Congress in the midterms.

California is the most populous state in the US and a strong base for the Democratic Party.

The Trump administration had focused on allegations of voting by non-US citizens ahead of the midterms. However, studies and state audits have shown that illegal voting, including by non-US citizens, is very rare.

The Supreme Court’s one-sentence decision gave no explanation, as is common in emergency cases. No justice publicly dissented.

The court also did not ask the California government to respond, a step that usually indicates a case is being considered seriously.

A federal appeals court had already rejected the government’s request on Friday (30 October). Trump had asked California to segregate ballots considered questionable and not count them until the voters’ citizenship status could be verified.

For years, Trump has made unsubstantiated claims of widespread election fraud in the US, including in the 2020 election, which Joe Biden won.