US-Israel Attack on Iran, Russian Expert: Miscalculation, Tehran Disrupts Global Trade
REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA — Claims of victory by US President Donald Trump over Iran in the conflict that has lasted more than a month have instead raised new questions: is this war approaching its end, or is it opening a longer chapter of uncertainty?
In his national address, Trump stated that the US military has nearly achieved all its objectives in Iran. He claimed that Tehran’s military strength has been crippled, including its navy, air force, as well as its missile and nuclear programmes.
“We have full control. They don’t have a single one,” said Trump, while emphasising that military operations will continue to be intensified in the coming weeks, as reported by RTE.
However, that statement was not accompanied by clarity on when the conflict would end. On the contrary, threats of further escalation have strengthened concerns that the war will last longer than expected.
The global market response has become an early indicator. Oil prices have surged sharply, while stock markets have weakened, reflecting anxiety over disruptions to the world’s energy supply and potential broader economic impacts.
An Undefined Victory
Several analysts assess that the main issue in this conflict is not merely who has the military upper hand, but how “victory” itself is defined.
Russian international relations expert Fyodor Lukyanov views Washington’s approach to Iran as containing a fundamental miscalculation. He asserts that Iran is not a country that can be easily subdued like in previous US military interventions.
“Iran is a large country with strategic depth and the ability to disrupt global trade and energy flows,” he wrote in RT.
According to Lukyanov, the assumption that Iran would surrender quickly has proven unrealistic. The conflict, initially projected to be short, has now developed into a prolonged confrontation without clear indicators of success.
This poses a strategic dilemma for Washington. As a global power, the US needs a decisive victory. However, the longer the conflict drags on without concrete results, the greater the risk of weakening America’s position on the international stage.