US-Iran Peace Deal Could Lower Global Oil Prices

The Director of Economics at the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Nailul Huda, believes a peace deal between the United States (US) and Iran could provide certainty for the global economy and bring positive impacts for Indonesia. He estimates that normalising energy trade routes will smooth the world’s oil and gas supply, thereby suppressing commodity prices and improving financial market sentiment.

“We hope that peace from the war in the Middle East will bring certainty to the global economy,” Huda said when contacted in Jakarta on Wednesday (17/6/2026).

Huda stated that stability in the Middle East region is crucial, given that the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s main suppliers of crude oil, natural gas, and various derivative products. According to him, the smooth distribution of energy will improve the global supply chain, leading to a decline in the prices of various strategic commodities, especially crude oil.

“Normalising transport through the Strait of Hormuz will boost the global economy again,” Huda said.

With global oil prices estimated to be around 80 US dollars per barrel, Huda assesses that Indonesia could potentially gain advantages from both fiscal and import cost perspectives. As supply becomes smoother, global commodity prices will fall, including crude oil.

“On one hand, this condition could save the state budget (APBN) from swelling and make imported commodity prices cheaper,” he explained.

He added that this positive sentiment is also reflected in the movement of the domestic capital market.