US-Iran Negotiations Stalemate, Global Oil Prices Surge Past 120 US Dollars

NEW YORK, KOMPAS.com - Global oil prices surged more than 6 per cent at the close of trading on Wednesday (29 April 2026) local time, or Thursday (30 April 2026) morning Western Indonesia Time. This sharp rise was triggered by market concerns over potential oil supply disruptions from the Middle East, following the deadlock in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran. Citing Reuters, Brent crude oil for June delivery rose 6.77 US dollars, or 6.1 per cent, to 118.03 US dollars per barrel, the highest since 31 March 2026. Even in after-hours trading, Brent briefly touched 120 US dollars per barrel for the first time since June 2022. The price increase occurred amid the impasse in US-Iran talks, heightening investor fears of prolonged oil supply disruptions from the Middle East region. A White House official stated that US President Donald Trump has asked American oil companies to find ways to mitigate the impact of a possible Iranian port blockade that could last for months. Since the war between the US and Israel against Iran began on 28 February 2026, the value of lost crude oil supply is estimated to have exceeded 50 billion US dollars by mid-April 2026. “If Trump is willing to extend the blockade, supply disruptions will worsen and continue to push oil prices higher,” said Yang An, analyst at Haitong Futures. From a fundamental perspective, US government data also showed a larger-than-expected decline in crude oil and fuel stocks. US crude oil inventories fell by more than 6 million barrels in a week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of around 200,000 barrels. On the other hand, distribution disruptions are also occurring because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, an oil firm from Abu Dhabi, has even informed some customers that they can load two types of crude oil from outside the Gulf next month. In addition, investors are also monitoring the impact of the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) decision to exit OPEC on the global oil market. Analysts assess that this move will not have a significant impact in the short term on the market. However, in the long term, the UAE’s exit could increase the risk of oversupply. “The UAE’s exit from OPEC will have minimal impact on market fundamentals in 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens,” said Simon Flowers, analyst at Wood Mackenzie.