US-Iran Negotiations Fail: What is the Impact on the JCI?

The failure of negotiations between the United States and Iran has had a less than favourable impact on global investor psychology, including in the domestic market.

Market capital analyst and Founder of Republik Investor, Hendra Wardana, stated that prior to this, the market had enjoyed a relatively calm phase due to a temporary ceasefire agreement, but the deadlock in negotiations has once again introduced new uncertainties.

This situation increases investors’ risk perception, especially since the Middle East region is the world’s central energy distribution hub, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz as a vital global oil trade route.

“If previously the market enjoyed a calm phase due to the temporary ceasefire agreement, this negotiation deadlock has once again brought new uncertainties,” Hendra told Kompas.com on Sunday (12/4/2026).

“The impact is that the stock market could face pressure, volatility will increase, and foreign fund flows will become more fluctuating, especially in emerging markets like Indonesia,” he explained.

For the movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) over the next week, Hendra predicts the index will move in a consolidation phase with a tendency towards volatility, following a previous strengthening that was more of a technical rebound or relief rally.

With a closing position at 7,458 last Friday, the JCI is still seen to have a chance of continuing limited strengthening. However, the room for upside is relatively narrow due to the overshadowing of global sentiment that has become unfavourable again.

Technically, the JCI has the potential to test the resistance area around 7,500 to 7,550. Meanwhile, on the downside, the index has the opportunity to retest the gap area at 7,308-7,346, which serves as an important short-term support.

In a bearish scenario, if conflict escalation increases, the JCI has the potential to correct towards the 7,300 area or even to 7,200, in line with increased selling pressure and potential capital outflows.

Quoting CNBC, US Vice President JD Vance stated that his side decided to leave peace negotiations with Iran after no agreement was reached regarding commitments on nuclear weapons development.