US-Iran Conflict Escalates in the Strait of Hormuz, Threatening Fragile Ceasefire
Tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have peaked again in the Persian Gulf on Saturday (28/6). Three consecutive days of tit-for-tat attacks around the Strait of Hormuz are testing the resilience of a ceasefire that was previously hoped to end months of hostilities.
The US military launched an operation targeting Iranian communication sites, air defences, drone storage facilities, and mine-laying capabilities. This strike was the second wave in two days in response to attacks on oil tankers in the strait. The US is seeking to degrade Iran’s ability to target commercial shipping.
Iranian state media reported explosions caused by projectiles in the port city of Sirik, Bandar Lengeh, and Qeshm Island, all locations of military facilities. Responding to this escalation, US President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Tehran via a social media statement.
“There may come a time when we can no longer be reasonable and are forced to finish the military job we started very successfully. If that happens, the Islamic Republic of Iran will be no more!” Trump wrote.
Following the US strikes, Iran claimed to have targeted US military bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Air raid sirens were reported sounding in the region, while Kuwaiti authorities stated they successfully intercepted two ballistic missiles. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) asserted it would tighten surveillance of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries approximately 20% of the world’s crude oil supply.
The conflict places immense pressure on an initial peace agreement already burdened by fighting in Lebanon and disputes over nuclear inspections. Iran interprets the language of the agreement as granting it authority over the Strait of Hormuz under the pretext of regulating the waterway for the safety of commercial ships.
Previously, many vessels used a US-backed route along the coast of Oman and the United Arab Emirates. However, the Revolutionary Guard is directing ships to switch to a lane passing through Iranian waters.
The violence also overshadows a framework peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US on Friday. However, the Iran-backed Hezbollah group rejected the deal and vowed to continue fighting Israel.
On Saturday, the US military reported that an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker Kiku, which was carrying 2 million barrels of crude oil. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) stated the attack hit the bridge, or main command centre, of the vessel.
Although Iran did not specifically claim responsibility for the Kiku attack, their state media stated that the Revolutionary Guard carried out strikes against American targets and reaffirmed control over traffic in the strait.
As a result of the incident, the Joint Maritime Information Center (a US-UK naval agency) raised the maritime security threat level in the Strait of Hormuz to substantial. Besides retaliating, US forces reportedly shot down two other drones targeting commercial shipping on the same day.
As of now, both sides are still showing signs of wanting to keep the fighting contained in order to continue discussions on implementing the agreement. However, political challenges remain significant, particularly as Iran insists on collecting revenue from transiting commercial ships and refuses to surrender its nuclear programme.