US-Iran Ceasefire Good News for Indonesia's Economy, Get Ready to Accelerate!
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The ceasefire between the United States and Iran brings fresh winds to the global economy, including Indonesia. The easing of geopolitical tensions is considered a positive catalyst, from energy prices to the stability of domestic financial markets.
Head of the Macroeconomics and Finance Centre at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef), M Rizal Taufikurahman, explained that the ceasefire provides positive short-term sentiment by reducing the risk of energy price surges and global logistics disruptions.
According to him, oil prices, which previously surged above US$110 per barrel, are now starting to fall to the range of US$90-95 per barrel. This situation helps reduce external pressures on Indonesia, which remains an energy importer.
“However, this cannot yet be read as a structural improvement, because it is still fragile and reversible, given that the geopolitical dynamics in the region are not fully stable,” Rizal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted on Thursday (9/4/2026).
From the domestic side, the most immediate impact is felt on inflation and fiscal matters. The decline in energy prices is seen as able to contain imported inflation and reduce pressure on logistics and production costs. Nevertheless, the fiscal space created is considered limited because oil prices remain historically high and the rupiah exchange rate is still vulnerable.
The ceasefire is also seen as opening up room for rupiah stabilisation after it was previously pressured to the level of Rp17,100 per US dollar.
“The easing of global tensions opens up room for exchange rate stabilisation and potential capital inflows. However, the direction of the rupiah’s movement will still be determined by fundamental factors such as fiscal credibility, interest rate differentials, and perceptions of Indonesia’s risk,” he said.
On the other hand, Global Markets Economist at Maybank Indonesia, Myrdal Gunarto, assessed that if the ceasefire persists consistently, Indonesia’s economy has the potential to accelerate again.
“The momentum of its economic growth could accelerate again. And the fiscal burden that we feared would swell could get back on track. So the development is good,” Myrdal told CNBC Indonesia, quoted on Thursday (9/4/2026).
He explained that the main transmission of this positive impact comes from the stabilisation of world oil prices and the smooth supply of global energy. If vital distribution routes like the Strait of Hormuz remain open, pressure on energy subsidies could ease significantly.
In fact, Myrdal predicts that oil prices could return to fundamental levels below US$70 per barrel, in line with the global economic slowdown. This has the potential to keep Indonesia’s inflation low, even below 3%.
“I think oil prices are still in the range below 70 dollars per barrel. The implication for our inflation should keep it relatively below 3 percent. Still at 2.51 percent for this year,” he said.