US Intelligence: Iran Plans to Escalate War Ahead of Midterm Elections
United States intelligence assesses that Iran is determined to escalate the war with Washington and prolong the conflict for at least several more months. A report released by The New York Times on Wednesday (4/9/2026) stated that Tehran is taking this step with an eye on the political momentum in the United States.
Based on intelligence documents from recent weeks, Iran is believed to be seeking to extend the conflict at least until the midterm elections in November. Tehran judges that the continuation of the war and high fuel prices will be politically damaging for President Donald Trump and the Republican Party.
The report also revealed that Iran feels more confident in its military capabilities after six months of involvement in the conflict. Tehran assesses that the US will struggle to carry out a large-scale attack due to the depletion of Washington’s ammunition stockpiles. In addition, Iran believes it holds strong bargaining power through its control of the Strait of Hormuz and its possession of large stockpiles of missiles and drones.
Physical tensions continue to rise even though the two countries reached a ceasefire agreement in April. Responding to the heated situation, President Donald Trump issued a stern warning. Trump stated that the US had succeeded in preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons over the past five months and threatened to carry out a devastating retaliatory strike if the situation worsens.
“If we don’t go in there, you wouldn’t have Israel today, you wouldn’t have the Middle East, and they might attack cities in Europe and our cities next,” Trump said on Friday (30/8/2024).
Trump specifically mentioned the possibility of an attack on Pickaxe Mountain, a location situated approximately 1.5 kilometres south of the Natanz nuclear facility. The site came under scrutiny after a Wall Street Journal report in July stated that Israeli intelligence believed Iran had moved thousands of uranium enrichment centrifuges into tunnels deep beneath the mountain.