US Intelligence Assessment: Even a Large-Scale Military Strike Would Not Topple the Islamic Republic of Iran

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, WASHINGTON — A secret document containing an intelligence assessment concludes that even a large-scale military strike would not topple the Islamic Republic of Iran. The report, obtained by the Washington Post and relayed by Al Mayadeen on Saturday 7 March 2026, states that Iran’s clerical leadership and military establishments are robust and capable of maintaining the government system under intense external pressure.

The finding emerges amid the Donald Trump administration signaling the possibility of a protracted war with Iran, with several officials saying the war has ‘only just begun’. According to three people familiar with the confidential document, the US intelligence community doubts Trump’s aim to ‘cleanse’ the leadership of Iran and replace it with his preferred leader.

The complete assessment was prepared by the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) a week before the US and Israel launched their attack. The NIC tested several scenarios, including a limited strike on senior leaders and a broader strike targeting Iranian government institutions and political leadership.

From those two scenarios, intelligence analysts concluded that Iran’s clerics and military leadership would certainly respond to the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by activating constitutional mechanisms to ensure continuity of power. The report also assesses that the fragmented opposition in Iran is unlikely to be able to seize control under the current conditions.

Sources quoted by the Washington Post described that takeover of power by opposition groups in Iran is unlikely. The NIC comprises senior analysts tasked with producing a secret assessment reflecting the collective analyses of 18 US intelligence boards.