US Inflation Cools as Expected, MSCI Rebalancing Shakes Indonesian Stocks
Throughout yesterday’s trading, the IHSG moved in a range of 6,272 (+0.08%) to a high of 6,373 (+1.69%).
On the US stock market, Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday, or early Thursday morning Indonesian time. The majority of indices strengthened after the US inflation report showed relatively controlled price pressures. Gains were also driven by technology stocks, particularly companies related to artificial intelligence (AI), such as CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer.
The S&P 500 rose 0.26% to close at 7,748.50. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.54% to 26,588.49. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.04%, or 21.58 points, to 53,770.27.
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July came in line with expectations. Headline inflation rose 0.1% month-on-month, while the annual inflation rate reached 3.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% year-on-year. The annual inflation rates for both headline and core CPI edged down compared with June.
The data emerged as the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of price increases on US consumers. At the last meeting, three Fed officials dissented and voted to raise interest rates.
Those concerns have not fully subsided. US oil prices broke above US$83 per barrel on Wednesday, amid dwindling hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, after the inflation data was released, the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady next month increased. Fed funds futures trading now shows around a 60% chance that the central bank will keep its benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, according to CME FedWatch. That figure is up from more than 45% a week earlier.
“Inflation in line with expectations will maintain the narrative that there is no need to raise rates, which emerged after last week’s labour report,” said Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, as quoted by CNBC International.
“There will still be one more round of inflation data before the September FOMC meeting, so the situation could still change. But unless that data shows a significantly different picture, the Fed is likely still in a position to hold rates steady next month,” she said.
Meanwhile, quarterly earnings reports and the latest outlooks from CoreWeave and Super Micro Computer convinced investors that demand for AI infrastructure development remains stable.
CoreWeave shares surged 19% after its adjusted operating margin of 5% in the second quarter beat expectations. The company’s revenue also doubled compared with the same period last year.
Super Micro Computer shares also jumped 19% after the company provided strong first-quarter profit and revenue guidance.
Shares of other AI-related companies also rose. Dell Technologies climbed nearly 10%, while Micron Technology gained almost 5%. Cisco Systems rose nearly 3%.
In addition, shares of Nebius, a Dutch neocloud company listed in the US, soared 34%.
Indonesian financial markets on Thursday (13/8/2026) will digest the US inflation data, which slowed in line with expectations. Attention now turns to US producer inflation and jobless claims, due for release on Thursday evening.
These three data points will form an important series for reading the direction of Federal Reserve policy. Consumer inflation shows price pressures are beginning to ease, but the market still needs confirmation that costs at the producer level and labour market conditions also support monetary policy easing.
Besides the US, Japan’s PPI remains a focus for the Japanese government. On the domestic side, the market will be confronted by the MSCI announcement made in the early hours of this morning.
The following is a breakdown of yesterday’s announcement results as well as what will be announced today:
War Developments: US-Iran Still Deadlocked, Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
Iran and the United States have still not reached an agreement to end the war in the Gulf region. A senior Iranian source said there has been no progress in efforts to revive the interim agreement reached in June.
That agreement previously included a halt to military operations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the US accused Iran of failing to meet its commitments, while Tehran accused Washington of violating the agreement by continuing to blockade ports and freeze Iranian assets.
US President Donald Trump claimed the US has full control over the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian authorities said the waterway remains blockaded and will not be opened until Tehran’s demands are met.
The conflict has heated up again after a series of attacks on ships in the Gulf region. This has kept oil prices volatile.
Brent crude was around US$88 per barrel, while WTI was around US$83 per barrel. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG trade.
MSCI Rebalancing Results
The MSCI rebalancing results were announced early Thursday morning. Investors in today’s market are expected to scrutinise the results of the MSCI index review announced in the early hours.
In the review, no Indonesian stocks were added to the MSCI Global Standard Index, while two stocks were removed: PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) and PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO).
However, their fates differ. CPIN was immediately included in the MSCI Indonesia Small Cap Index, so the change is more accurately described as a downgrade from Standard to Small Cap.
As for GOTO, its removal does not only apply to the MSCI Indonesia Standard Index. MSCI confirmed that the stock will also be removed from the MSCI Indonesia Investable Market Index using the lowest system price, namely 0.00001 of the share currency.
This special treatment was applied because of index replication issues arising from GOTO’s very low liquidity after the stock remained at its minimum price of Rp50 since the close of trading on 13 May 2026.
MSCI also removed nine stocks from the Indonesia Small Cap Index. Because Indonesia is currently subject to a freeze, there will be no additions of Indonesian issuers until the next announcement before the effective date of the November 2026 MSCI rebalancing.
All changes take effect after the close of trading on 31 August 2026. Portfolio adjustments by passive funds typically occur near the close on the effective date, from today’s trading until the close on 31 August.
Therefore, stocks that are removed could face selling pressure and a surge in volume in the coming days until the effective date of the rebalancing.
MSCI did not provide any additional announcement regarding Indonesia on its official Index Announcement website, so investors still need to wait for MSCI’s decision on the continuation of the freeze and other matters until a further announcement before the November 2026 MSCI rebalancing.
Prabowo Submits List of Four Candidates for Bank Indonesia Board of Governors
President Prabowo Subianto has proposed four names to fill positions on the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors.
House Speaker Puan Maharani said the Presidential Letter regarding BI Board of Governors candidates had been delivered to the House leadership by Minister of State Secretary Prasetyo Hadi.
The four names proposed are Destry Damayanti as candidate for BI Governor, Aida S. Budiman as candidate for BI Senior Deputy Governor, Solikin M. Juhro as candidate for BI Deputy Governor, and Anwar Bashori as candidate for BI Deputy Governor.
Currently, Destry serves as BI Senior Deputy Governor, Aida is a BI Deputy Governor, Solikin serves as BI Assistant Governor, while Anwar is Head of BI’s Currency Management Department.
Puan said the selection process will be carried out through the House mechanism after the session period opens on 14 August 2026.
US Inflation Slows in Line with Expectations
US inflation data released on Wednesday showed prices of goods and services are beginning to slow, potentially reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates soon.
According to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month in July. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2%.
On an annual basis, inflation stood at 3.4% and 2.5% respectively, down 0.1 percentage point from June. All figures were in line with Dow Jones consensus estimates.
Although still far above the Fed’s 2% inflation target, the relatively low price increases over the past two months indicate that pressure from the energy spike is beginning to ease. However, prices remain volatile as conditions in the Middle East continue to shift.
The decline in annual inflation shows price pressures are gradually easing. However, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, while the monthly increase shows prices are rising again after having fallen in June.
This result could reduce concerns about further rate hikes, but is not yet enough to encourage aggressive rate cuts.
For the Indonesian market, inflation in line with expectations tends to provide limited positive sentiment. Pressure on the US dollar and bond yields could ease, helping the rupiah and the IHSG.
Japan Producer Inflation
Today, investors will scrutinise Japan’s corporate goods price index (PPI) for July, due for release this morning. This indicator reflects changes in prices of goods traded between corporations and serves as a measure of cost pressures at the producer level.
On an annual basis, Japan’s producer inflation is expected to rise to 7.4% from 7.1% in June. On a monthly basis, producer prices are projected to rise 0.6%, higher than the previous 0.4% increase.
The increase indicates Japanese companies are still facing cost pressures from raw materials, energy and imported goods. The weakening yen could also increase import costs, which are then passed on to corporate selling prices and consumers.
A higher-than-expected realisation could strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan to continue normalising monetary policy. This could potentially strengthen the yen, but could weigh on Japanese exporter stocks and increase volatility in Asian markets.
Conversely, a lower PPI would indicate cost pressures are beginning to ease. Such a result could dampen expectations of Japanese rate hikes and provide positive sentiment for regional stock markets, although yen weakness could potentially return.
US Producer Inflation
After yesterday’s consumer inflation, the market will scrutinise the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, due for release tonight. This data is important because it reflects changes in costs faced by producers before being passed on to consumers.
PPI on an annual basis is expected to slow to 4.9% from 5.5% in June. On a monthly basis, producer prices are projected to rise 0.2% after previously falling 0.3%.
Core producer inflation is expected to fall to 4.2% annually from 4.7%. However, on a monthly basis, core PPI is projected to rise 0.3%, slightly higher than the 0.2% increase in June.
If the result is lower than expected, the market could conclude that corporate cost pressures are also easing after consumer inflation fell. This could potentially pressure the dollar and US bond yields while providing more room for the Fed to loosen policy.
Conversely, a higher PPI would indicate production cost pressures remain strong and risk being passed on to consumer prices. That scenario could strengthen the dollar, raise bond yields, and put pressure on the rupiah and the IHSG.
US Jobless Claims
At the same time, the market will await US initial jobless claims for the week ending 8 August. Claims are expected to rise to 202,000 from 199,000 the previous week.
Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to be around 1.8 million, relatively stable compared with 1.801 million previously. Continuing claims reflect the number of people still receiving benefits after filing an initial claim.
A controlled increase in initial claims could indicate the labour market is beginning to loosen without experiencing a sharp weakening. This is fairly positive for the market because it could reduce wage and inflation pressures while providing room for the Fed to cut rates.
However, claims far higher than expected could raise concerns about an economic slowdown and rising layoffs.
Conversely, claims that fall again would indicate the labour market remains tight. That could potentially cause the Fed to keep rates high for longer because inflation pressure from wages remains at risk of persisting.
The following are a number of scheduled agendas and data releases for today:
CNBC Indonesia is presenting the Digital Banking Forum 2026 with the theme “Building the Future Digital Banking Ecosystem”, on Thursday, 13 August, at 12.00 WIB.
The President is attending the inauguration of national electric motorcycles in Cikarang, Bekasi Regency, West Java Province.
BPS will release the 2026 Housing Statistics Publication by the Central Statistics Agency and the Ministry of Housing and Settlement Areas in the Meeting Room, Building 1, Floor 1, BPS headquarters, Central Jakarta.
Impact Investment Festival 2026 in the Main Hall of the Indonesia Stock Exchange, South Jakarta.
The Minister of Finance is attending the foiling of an illegal gold smuggling attempt at Soekarno-Hatta International Airport, Tangerang Regency, Banten Province.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Press Briefing on the Latest Developments in Foreign Policy Issues in the Palapa Room, Ministry of Foreign Affairs office, Central Jakarta.
Launch of the Local Product Acceleration Programme at Caping Gunung, Taman Mini Indonesia Indah, East Jakarta. Attendees include the Minister of Trade and Shopee Indonesia management.
Japan PPI July 2026
Saudi Arabia Inflation July 2026
UK GDP Growth Q2 2026
Spain Inflation July 2026
US PPI July 2026
Jobless Claims First Week of August 2026
The following are a number of corporate agendas in the country today:
Notice of RUPS Plan for Millennium Pharmacon International Tbk (SDPC)
Notice of RUPS Plan for PT DFI Retail Nusantara Tbk (HERO)
Notice of RUPS Plan for PT Kurniamitra Duta Sentosa Tbk (KMDS)
Notice of RUPS Plan for PT Superkrane Mitra Utama Tbk (SKRN)
DPS Date for Interim Cash Dividend of PT Triputra Agro Persada Tbk (TAPG)
DPS Date for Interim Cash Dividend of PT Bank Amar Indonesia Tbk (AMAR)
Cum Dividend Date for Interim Cash Dividend of PT Mark Dynamics Indonesia Tbk (MARK)
The following are a number of national economic indicators:
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