US Hopes of Withdrawing from Iran War Pressure Oil Prices
BEIJING, KOMPAS.com - Global oil prices weakened at the start of trading on Thursday (2/4/2026), in line with increasing market hopes that the United States (US) will withdraw from the conflict in the Middle East.
Citing Reuters, Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.16 US dollars or 1.15 percent to 100 US dollars per barrel.
Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil slid by 1.41 US dollars or 1.41 percent to 98.71 US dollars per barrel.
The price drop occurred ahead of a speech by US President Donald Trump, which is expected to signal the direction of policy regarding the Middle East conflict.
Trump told Reuters on Wednesday, hours before his speech, that the US would end the war with Iran in the near future.
“Selling intensified overnight as hopes grew that the Iran conflict could finally begin to subside,” said IG Market Analyst Tony Sycamore.
He added that market participants now expect a softer tone in policy from the US government.
Nevertheless, Sycamore cautioned that a US withdrawal from the conflict would not necessarily guarantee the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
“If the US exits without a formal ceasefire agreement guaranteeing freedom of navigation and leaves regional allies and energy assets vulnerable to Iranian attacks, the risk premium is likely to remain embedded in oil prices,” he explained.
Threats to maritime traffic have also increased amid escalating tensions in the region.
On Wednesday, an oil tanker chartered by QatarEnergy was reportedly hit by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, according to the local defence ministry.
On the other hand, the Head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that oil supply disruptions are beginning to impact Europe’s economy in April.
Previously, the region was still protected by contracted supplies before the war broke out.
This situation indicates that despite hopes of de-escalation, risks to global energy supplies continue to overshadow the oil market.