US Dollar Nears Rp18,000 Again
The rupiah exchange rate began this morning’s trading with a correction against the US dollar. According to Refinitiv data, the Indonesian currency weakened by 0.17% at the opening of trade on Thursday (2/7/2026) to the level of Rp17,960/US, bringingtherupiahclosertoitspsychologicallevelofRp18, 000/US.
This weakness continues the pressure seen in previous trading sessions. On Wednesday (1/7/2026), the rupiah closed down 0.31% at the position of Rp17,930/US$.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the greenback against six major world currencies, was observed to be stable at the 101.400 level as of 09:00 WIB.
The movement of the rupiah in today’s trading will still be influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar in the global market. The greenback tends to remain stable as market participants await the release of US labour market data, specifically the non-farm payrolls.
This data is a focal point as it provides the latest insight into the US labour market conditions and the direction of interest rate policy by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve (The Fed). Based on median economist forecasts gathered by Reuters, US employment is expected to increase by 110,000 in June 2026, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that inflation expectations and price risks have eased in recent weeks. On the other hand, ADP reports show that private sector labour absorption continues to increase, although at a lower rate than expected.
Nevertheless, the US dollar continues to receive support from expectations of a Fed interest rate hike this year. A relatively strong labour market also supports the US economic growth outlook, particularly after job creation over the last three months was recorded higher than expected.
Domestically, market participants are also closely monitoring Indonesia’s inflation data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS) on Wednesday (1/7/2026). BPS announced that Indonesian inflation was 0.44% month-to-month (mtm) in June 2026. On a year-on-year (yoy) basis, inflation was recorded at 3.34%.
This inflationary pressure is higher than the May 2026 condition, which recorded inflation of 0.28% mtm. BPS noted that the expenditure group experiencing the highest inflation was the transport sector, at 2.29%, contributing 0.28% to inflation.
“Inflation of 0.44% occurred,” said the Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, Ateng Hartono, during a press conference at the BPS Head Office, Jakarta, on Wednesday (1/7/2026).
This realised inflation is also higher than market expectations. Based on a consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2026 was previously expected to rise by 0.30% monthly. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, inflation was previously expected to reach 3.2%. This means that June 2026 inflation, both monthly and annually, stands above market forecasts.