US Dollar Nears Rp18,000 Again

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah exchange rate started trading with a correction against the United States (US) dollar this morning. According to Refinitiv data, the Garuda currency weakened 0.17% at the opening of trading on Thursday (2/7/2026) to Rp17,960/US, bringingitclosertothepsychologicallevelofRp18, 000/US. This decline continued the pressure from the previous trading session. On Wednesday (1/7/2026), the rupiah also closed down 0.31% at Rp17,930/US$. Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was observed moving steadily at 101.400 as of 09.00 Western Indonesia Time. The rupiah’s movement today will still be influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar in global markets. The greenback tends to be stable as market participants await the release of US labour data, namely nonfarm payrolls. This data is of concern because it can provide the latest picture of the US labour market conditions and the direction of the US central bank’s or The Federal Reserve’s (The Fed) interest rate policy. Based on the median estimate of economists compiled by Reuters, the number of US workers is expected to increase by 110,000 in June 2026. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on Wednesday that inflation expectations and price risks have eased in recent weeks. On the other hand, the ADP report showed that private sector employment absorption was still increasing, although lower than expected. Nevertheless, the US dollar is still supported by expectations of a Fed interest rate hike this year. The relatively strong labour market also supports US economic growth prospects, especially after job creation in the last three months was recorded higher than expected. Domestically, market participants are also still observing Indonesia’s inflation data released by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) on Wednesday (1/7/2026). BPS announced that Indonesia’s inflation was 0.44% month-to-month (mtm) in June 2026. Annually, inflation was recorded at 3.34%. This inflationary pressure is higher than the May 2026 condition which recorded inflation of 0.28% mtm. BPS noted that the expenditure group experiencing the largest inflation was the transportation sector, at 2.29%. This group contributed 0.28% to inflation. ‘There was inflation of 0.44%,’ said BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Ateng Hartono at a press conference at the BPS Head Office, Jakarta, Wednesday (1/7/2026). This inflation realisation is also higher than market expectations. Based on a consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions, the June 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) was previously expected to rise 0.30% monthly. Meanwhile, on an annual basis, inflation was previously expected to reach 3.2%. This means that June 2026 inflation, both monthly and annually, was above market expectations.