US Dollar Hits Rp18,175 as Rupiah Sets New Record Low: Here’s Why
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The rupiah ended in negative territory again on Wednesday (28 October 2026), as pressure on the currency continued while markets awaited the US central bank’s interest-rate decision.
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah closed 0.17% weaker at Rp18,175 per US dollar. This marked a new record low at the close, surpassing the previous record of Rp18,170 per US dollar set on 8 June 2026.
The pressure was evident from the start of trading, when the rupiah opened 0.04% lower at Rp18,152 per US dollar. Its losses then widened, and it ended 23 points below its opening level.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was up 0.14% at 102.461 at 3pm Western Indonesian Time (WIB).
The stronger US dollar further constrained the rupiah ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate announcement, due at 1am WIB on Thursday (29 October 2026).
Markets put the probability of the Fed holding its benchmark rate at 3.75%–4.00% at 91%. With a hold widely expected, investors are focusing more on signals about the next policy moves, particularly the possibility of a rate rise in December.
Investors will scrutinise Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks for indications of how concerned the central bank is about inflation. A signal of tighter policy could support the US dollar and add to pressure on the rupiah.
UOB Kay Hian economist Surya Wijaksana said pressure on the rupiah stemmed from high oil prices, deteriorating foreign investor sentiment following an MSCI announcement, and a renewed rise in US government bond yields.
Together, these factors pose an additional challenge for the rupiah. High oil prices could also add to inflationary pressure and weigh on consumer confidence.
Nevertheless, Surya expects Bank Indonesia (BI) to continue intervening to limit the rupiah’s decline.
“I still think it will be in the 18,000–18,200 range because BI will intervene. BI will defend the rupiah. It may step up its intervention in the spot market,” Surya told CNBC Indonesia.
Meanwhile, Revo Gilang Firdaus, an equity analyst at Mega Capital Sekuritas, forecast that the rupiah would trade between Rp17,889 and Rp18,280 per US dollar this week. Over the next month, he expects it to range from Rp17,724 to Rp18,499 per US dollar.
“The forecast indicates that rupiah volatility remains high,” Revo told CNBC Indonesia.
He said prolonged uncertainty surrounding MSCI could trigger further capital outflows. This could keep pressure on the rupiah amid a still relatively strong US dollar.