US Dollar Climbs to Rp17,840 as Rupiah Weakens
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The rupiah exchange rate opened weaker against the US dollar in trading on Thursday (18/6/2026), depreciating as the greenback strengthened in global markets.
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah began the morning session in the red, pressured by 0.62% to trade at Rp17,840/US.Thisdeclinecontinuedthepressurefromtheprevioussession, whentherupiahclosed0.23 on Wednesday (17/6/2026).
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against six major world currencies, was seen strengthening 0.18% to 100.273 as of 09.00 WIB. The rise extended the DXY’s positive performance from the previous session, when the index jumped 0.55% after the US central bank (The Federal Reserve/The Fed) announced its monthly interest rate decision.
The strengthening dollar index indicates that market participants are once again chasing dollar-denominated assets, a condition that ultimately pressures other countries’ currencies, including the rupiah. The dollar rallied after the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate, but the central bank’s statement showed policymakers still see the possibility of rate hikes this year amid growing inflation concerns.
The Fed held its benchmark rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the latest quarterly projections showed nine Fed officials now anticipate a rate increase before the end of 2026. The new policy statement also removed language previously used to signal the possibility of further rate cuts in 2026. This change drew market attention as it indicates a more cautious, even tighter, Fed stance in responding to inflation risks.
In an early sign of the influence of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, the policy statement also no longer provided forward guidance on the direction of interest rates. The latest format only conveys the rate decision and reaffirms the central bank’s commitment to maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. The Fed also raised its end-2026 inflation projection to 3.6% from the previous 2.7%, prompting market participants to scrutinise the likelihood of US rate hikes in the coming months.
Short-term US interest rate futures now price a greater chance that the Fed will raise rates in September rather than hold them at current levels. Domestically, market participants are also awaiting the final announcement from Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (RDG BI), which took place on 17-18 June 2026.
A majority of market participants expect BI to raise its benchmark rate again at this meeting, although the margin of projections is increasingly narrow. Of the 14 institutions participating in CNBC Indonesia’s poll, eight forecast the BI Rate will rise by 25 basis points to 5.75%, while six others expect BI to hold the rate at 5.50%. With these results, the median projection in the poll stands at 5.75%. BI’s decision today will be a key focus for the market, especially as the rupiah is once again under pressure following the dollar’s post-Fed rally.