US Citizens Face 11 Major Threats, Most Dangerous Is Not War

Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) has become one of the biggest determinants of the direction of the United States (US) economy in 2026. As many as 59% of economists from US financial institutions cited a correction in AI investment as the greatest risk of economic downturn this year. That figure exceeds the risk of geopolitical escalation at 47% and rising energy prices at 35%.

However, there is another interesting side. AI is also the largest potential source of growth for the US economy, with 29% of economists citing AI-related capital expenditure (CapEx) as the biggest upside opportunity.

This means the US economy now faces the same bet from two directions. If AI investment continues and yields productivity gains, the economy could receive a fresh boost. But if a sharp correction occurs, the same investment could become a source of pressure.

Concerns about AI are not without reason. Capital expenditure by five major US technology companies—Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle—reached US$412 billion in 2025. That is equivalent to 1.3% of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The sheer size of that figure shows that AI investment has moved far beyond a story about the technology industry. Spending on data centres, computing equipment, and supporting infrastructure has become an important part of US economic activity. As a result, a slowdown in AI investment could be felt directly in economic growth. If data centre construction and purchases of computing equipment slow, overall business investment could also come under pressure.

Beyond AI, most of the other risks relate to rising costs. Geopolitical escalation is in second place at 47%. Meanwhile, rising energy prices, cited by 35% of economists, could squeeze household budgets as well as corporate margins. Rising interest rates are also a concern for 29% of economists. For the public, higher interest rates mean higher mortgage and loan costs. For businesses, such conditions can make investment more expensive.

AI, which ranks first as a threat, is also the biggest economic opportunity. Some 29% of economists see AI-related capital expenditure as a potential source of upside for the US economy in 2026. The hope is that the large investments technology companies are making today will ultimately produce productivity gains.

For now, those investments have already provided a boost to economic activity. Technology investment has even contributed 25% of real US GDP growth since 2023, with its contribution rising sharply into early 2026.

The impact is not only felt by technology companies. If inflation and energy prices fall, households have more room to spend income on other needs. A strong labour market can support household incomes. Lower interest rates would also make mortgages and other loans cheaper.

On one hand, AI infrastructure development is driving business investment and economic activity. If that trend continues and produces productivity gains, AI could become one of the new engines of US growth. On the other hand, the larger the role of AI in economic investment, the greater the impact if a correction occurs.

With technology company capital expenditure already reaching hundreds of billions of dollars, a change in the direction of AI investment is no longer just a matter for technology companies. The impact could spill over into business investment and US economic growth more broadly. If the AI boom continues, today’s large investments could turn into stronger productivity and growth. But if that spending reverses sharply, the same investment could become one of the weak points of the US economy.