U.S.-China ties key to Korea's future

U.S.-China ties key to Korea's future

By Zeno Park

SEOUL (AFP): U.S.-China ties will be crucial in determining
Korea's future, while North Korea, dabbling in limited economic
reforms, will at least in the short term try to avoid contacts
with South Korea.

These are the key points largely agreed upon by analysts at a
seminar here on North Korea's future, staged by the U.S.
Brookings Institution and Institute of Foreign Affairs and
National Security of the foreign ministry here Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Thomas L. McNaugher of Brookings said: "They (North Korea)
will continue trying to ignore Seoul, exploiting a recent
agreement with the United States ... more for its contacts with
Washington and Tokyo than for its enforced deal with Seoul for
new (nuclear) reactors."

North Korea and the United States struck an agreement in
Geneva on Oct. 21 that the North freeze its suspect nuclear
program in return for economic aid, diplomatic recognition and
new light-water reactors.

South Korea will offer the bulk of the cost for the reactors,
estimated at four billion dollars.

McNaugher said North Korean leaders needed economic growth to
survive but realized that growth could be lethal.

The North will balance these risks by seeking limited economic
reform. If they succeed, he said, they will try to reinvigorate
their contest with South Korea on political and economic grounds,
perhaps on military grounds as well.

"More important than economic motivation in shaping inter-
Korean relations and the prospects for unification, will be the
quality of relations among those around the peninsula,
particularly China and the United States," he said.

If U.S.-China relations sour, perhaps over human rights or
over Taiwan, then Beijing's stake in North Korea's survival as a
socialist regime and geostrategic buffer will grow and
Pyongyang's room for maneuver will expand, he said.

"The argument that outside powers have a crucial role to play
in determining Korea's future conforms to Korea's history,
geography and relative size among the larger regional powers," he
said.

Yang Sung-chul of the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies
Kynghee University agreed that China definitely would be an
intervener at best and a roadblock to South Korea-led integration
process and unification at worst.

McNaugher said limited economic reform was Pyongyang's
preferred initial scenario, since it promises a certain amount of
economic growth but minimizes the destabilizing consequences of
too energetic an opening of its economy.

The initial stages of this scenario may be very dangerous for
South Korea since the isolated North Korean regime's "paranoia"
is likely to run higher than usual, McNaugher said.

During this stage, the North will avoid serious talk of
unification (with the South) in the hope that they can approach
that subject from a stronger position down the road, he said.

Harry Harding of the Brookings Institution said if Kim Jong-
il, eldest son and designated successor to late long-time ruler
Kim Il-sung, succeeded in consolidating his power, he will
attempt a program of limited economic reform.

But after a year or so, it will become increasingly apparent
that limited reform has produced limited consequences, while
loyalty to the legacy of Kim Il-sung weakens, leading to the
widening of the range of policy options.

At that point, the regime will adopt more thorough economic
reform, accompanied by a partial restructuring of political life,
drawing inspiration from the Chinese and Vietnamese experience,
Harding said.

Paik Jin-hyun, Institute of Foreign Affairs and National
Security, agreed that North Korea's leaders would be "extremely
cautious and reluctant" about inter-Korean economic exchanges and
cooperation.

"In short, North Korea will introduce policy changes and
reforms yet such changes and reforms are to be at best limited
and selective and be pursued in such a way that their political
and social impact is safely contained," Paik said.