U.S.-China tension is bad for Southeast Asia

U.S.-China tension is bad for Southeast Asia

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

BANGKOK: With U.S.-China tension steadily on the increase,
Southeast Asia's future strategic environment is full of
uncertainties. For the region, it comes at the worst time as
China has become more aggressive, especially in its campaign
against the proliferation of Falungong followers.

The Bush administration's decision to up the ante against
Beijing on sensitive issues such as the National Missile Defence
system, Taiwan policy and human rights has already directly
affected the countries in the region.

At the previous ASEAN foreign-ministerial meeting in Bangkok
last June, participants were unhappy with the U.S. proposal
because they viewed the system as taking aim at China. On this
issue ASEAN is moving further away from the U.S. position, and
this could have a spill-over effect on other issues.

Washington's pledge to sell advanced weapons, such as the
Aegis radar system, to Taiwan has already drawn a quick response
from Beijing. Foreign Minister Tan Jiaxuan warned the U.S. of
grave consequences.

What ASEAN fears the most is a military beef-up by China as
the result of intensified U.S.-Taiwan security relations. China's
announcement last week that it will boost its military budget by
almost 18 percent this year to 141 billion yuan has already sent
chills down the spines of ASEAN countries. If this trend
continues, ASEAN countries will have to increase their own
defence budgets and purchase more arms.

ASEAN is so concerned about this tense situation that its
senior officials will meet in Ho Chi Minh City on March 15 to 16
to map out the grouping's strategy on how best to respond to
U.S.-China competition.

Topping the agenda will be the fate of the regional code of
conduct. ASEAN and China were expected to sign the code, which
will govern their future relations, last November, but some ASEAN
members had second thoughts. It is possible that there will not
be any consensus among the ASEAN countries and the signing will
be delayed indefinitely.

The change of heart within ASEAN is probably due to the latest
strategic shift in China's favor. ASEAN is also concerned that it
is losing its bargaining power against China. Since both
initiated high-level talks in 1995, China has made impressive
inroads in its ties with ASEAN and has managed to neutralize
ASEAN's anti-Chinese sentiment.

The senior official meeting next week will also influence the
outcome of the ASEAN-China consultative meeting scheduled for
mid-April on Hainan Island. ASEAN needs a unified approach in
responding to China's offensive strategies.

The new U.S. administration has not yet shown any appreciation
of the situation in Southeast Asia. The lack of consultation at
the highest levels will reinforce the perception that Washington
does not pay enough attention to the region.

Some of the countries are watching how the new administration
follows up on the multilateral security-cooperation policy
proposed at the end of last year by the Clinton administration.

Apart from Thailand and Singapore, no countries have set out
their positions. Obviously, they realize that this multi-layered
security arrangement is primarily aimed at putting together U.S.
allies in the region. The United States has said that this idea
is inclusive in nature and would welcome China's participation.
Beijing is unlikely to respond.

Therefore the forthcoming Thai-U.S. military exercise, code-
named Cobra Gold, in May will be a litmus test of future U.S.
strategy in Asia and the Pacific. At least it will demonstrate
how receptive the countries in the region are towards the new
security thinking.

As far as Thailand is concerned, the new Thai government is
repositioning itself to edge closer to China's strategic design.
Defence Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and his Chinese
counterpart, Chi Haotian, are old pals.

They also have a grand plan to boost their security
cooperation in the future. Both have similar ideas that their
cooperation could serve as a bedrock for the rest of the region.
Defence and security cooperation was included in the Thai-Chinese
comprehensive agreement signed in 1999.

When Chavalit was army chief in the late 1980s, he proposed
the establishment of a war-reserve stockpile of Chinese arms, but
the idea flopped. However, Chavalit's return has also brought
back some old plans. This time they do not focus on land enemies
as in the past but rather on acting jointly to counter U.S.
influence and maneuverability.

The United States, which has served as a stabilizing wheel for
over five decades in this part of the world, will encounter a
less friendly Southeast Asia in the future. The growing anti-
American sentiment, albeit rhetorical, has a damaging effect on
the U.S. position in the region. And it is in this area that
China may find an edge.

It remains to be seen how ASEAN countries will react to the
U.S.-China competition. ASEAN can no longer afford the luxury of
courting both the United States and China. Their tension will
have an impact on the region as a whole.

For the time being, the Asian countries have managed only to
forge closer economic and trade ties, but they have not yet
addressed security and defence issues, which cannot be avoided.
Like it or not, the United States cannot be expected to shoulder
the military burden alone as in the past.

Nonetheless Washington needs to reassure Southeast Asian
leaders immediately that its hawkish policy towards China will
not rise to a level that would jeopardize the equilibrium between
their friendship with Beijing. In short, this hard-line posture
should be in the nature of a temporary tactic.

-- The Nation/Asia News Network