U.S.-China tension is bad for Southeast Asia

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

BANGKOK: With U.S.-China tension steadily on the increase, Southeast Asia's future strategic environment is full of uncertainties. For the region, it comes at the worst time as China has become more aggressive, especially in its campaign against the proliferation of Falungong followers.

The Bush administration's decision to up the ante against Beijing on sensitive issues such as the National Missile Defence system, Taiwan policy and human rights has already directly affected the countries in the region.

At the previous ASEAN foreign-ministerial meeting in Bangkok last June, participants were unhappy with the U.S. proposal because they viewed the system as taking aim at China. On this issue ASEAN is moving further away from the U.S. position, and this could have a spill-over effect on other issues.

Washington's pledge to sell advanced weapons, such as the Aegis radar system, to Taiwan has already drawn a quick response from Beijing. Foreign Minister Tan Jiaxuan warned the U.S. of grave consequences.

What ASEAN fears the most is a military beef-up by China as the result of intensified U.S.-Taiwan security relations. China's announcement last week that it will boost its military budget by almost 18 percent this year to 141 billion yuan has already sent chills down the spines of ASEAN countries. If this trend continues, ASEAN countries will have to increase their own defence budgets and purchase more arms.

ASEAN is so concerned about this tense situation that its senior officials will meet in Ho Chi Minh City on March 15 to 16 to map out the grouping's strategy on how best to respond to U.S.-China competition.

Topping the agenda will be the fate of the regional code of conduct. ASEAN and China were expected to sign the code, which will govern their future relations, last November, but some ASEAN members had second thoughts. It is possible that there will not be any consensus among the ASEAN countries and the signing will be delayed indefinitely.

The change of heart within ASEAN is probably due to the latest strategic shift in China's favor. ASEAN is also concerned that it is losing its bargaining power against China. Since both initiated high-level talks in 1995, China has made impressive inroads in its ties with ASEAN and has managed to neutralize ASEAN's anti-Chinese sentiment.

The senior official meeting next week will also influence the outcome of the ASEAN-China consultative meeting scheduled for mid-April on Hainan Island. ASEAN needs a unified approach in responding to China's offensive strategies.

The new U.S. administration has not yet shown any appreciation of the situation in Southeast Asia. The lack of consultation at the highest levels will reinforce the perception that Washington does not pay enough attention to the region.

Some of the countries are watching how the new administration follows up on the multilateral security-cooperation policy proposed at the end of last year by the Clinton administration.

Apart from Thailand and Singapore, no countries have set out their positions. Obviously, they realize that this multi-layered security arrangement is primarily aimed at putting together U.S. allies in the region. The United States has said that this idea is inclusive in nature and would welcome China's participation. Beijing is unlikely to respond.

Therefore the forthcoming Thai-U.S. military exercise, code- named Cobra Gold, in May will be a litmus test of future U.S. strategy in Asia and the Pacific. At least it will demonstrate how receptive the countries in the region are towards the new security thinking.

As far as Thailand is concerned, the new Thai government is repositioning itself to edge closer to China's strategic design. Defence Minister General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and his Chinese counterpart, Chi Haotian, are old pals.

They also have a grand plan to boost their security cooperation in the future. Both have similar ideas that their cooperation could serve as a bedrock for the rest of the region. Defence and security cooperation was included in the Thai-Chinese comprehensive agreement signed in 1999.

When Chavalit was army chief in the late 1980s, he proposed the establishment of a war-reserve stockpile of Chinese arms, but the idea flopped. However, Chavalit's return has also brought back some old plans. This time they do not focus on land enemies as in the past but rather on acting jointly to counter U.S. influence and maneuverability.

The United States, which has served as a stabilizing wheel for over five decades in this part of the world, will encounter a less friendly Southeast Asia in the future. The growing anti- American sentiment, albeit rhetorical, has a damaging effect on the U.S. position in the region. And it is in this area that China may find an edge.

It remains to be seen how ASEAN countries will react to the U.S.-China competition. ASEAN can no longer afford the luxury of courting both the United States and China. Their tension will have an impact on the region as a whole.

For the time being, the Asian countries have managed only to forge closer economic and trade ties, but they have not yet addressed security and defence issues, which cannot be avoided. Like it or not, the United States cannot be expected to shoulder the military burden alone as in the past.

Nonetheless Washington needs to reassure Southeast Asian leaders immediately that its hawkish policy towards China will not rise to a level that would jeopardize the equilibrium between their friendship with Beijing. In short, this hard-line posture should be in the nature of a temporary tactic.

-- The Nation/Asia News Network