U.S.-China rivalry shifts to ASEAN's back yard

U.S.-China rivalry shifts to ASEAN's back yard

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

WASHINGTON: Diplomats of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation here were relieved when the Chinese government released the 24 crew members of the U.S. EP-3 spy plane last week. However, they now fear that future U.S.-China relations will hold their countries hostage as the world's two most powerful nations continue their diplomatic duel.

Thai Ambassador Tej Bunnag said it is pivotal that the United States and China have good and stable relations because "they affect the countries in the region instantaneously and with long- term consequences." Tej pointed out that both countries are members of key economic and security groupings in the region. "Their tensions, if unsettled, can be felt in these meetings and that is not good," he said.

The United States and China are members of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation grouping, and they attend the ASEAN- sponsored security and economic meetings known as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) and the ASEAN Post Ministerial Meeting.

At last year's ARF meeting in Bangkok, China attacked the U.S. plan to build a regional missile-defense system, which Beijing says is a strategy to contain its growing military clout and neutralize its nuclear arsenal.

Of course, Tej is not alone in following the tense U.S.-China negotiations over the spy plane. Other ASEAN ambassadors were doing the same and were in close consultation with one another to exchange notes and views.

Another ASEAN envoy, who asked not to be named, said he shared Tej's sentiment because "ASEAN is now in the same boat sailing the same rough sea". The ASEAN foreign ministers, the envoy added, will have the opportunity to assess the U.S.-China relations when they meet informally in Rangoon later this month.

He said the spy-plane incident has also plugged both countries into one of the hottest issues concerning regional security: The South China Sea. He added that whatever the United States and China choose to say and do about the mid-air collision from now on will have a direct bearing on the region's increasingly volatile security situation.

Although Washington did say it was "very sorry" both about the death of the Chinese pilot and its entry into Chinese airspace without asking for permission, it remains firm that its aircraft was operating in international airspace over the South China Sea when the collision occurred.

On the other hand, Beijing has maintained that the U.S. spy plane was flying over its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea, which it also claims as its historic territorial waters, and that the flight was an infringement of its national sovereignty.

For years, both ASEAN and China, without U.S. involvement, have been trying to contain the disputed claims over the South China Sea, believed to contain rich minerals, oil and marine resources. Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines are the ASEAN claimants. The Philippines has been for years asking for broader engagement from the international community, including the United States and United Nations, to help resolve the disputes regarding the South China Sea. But China has resisted.

China's claims regarding the South China Sea made in the aftermath of the collision overlap claims made by ASEAN countries, especially those of Vietnam, and will certainly further complicate the issue.

At the moment, the dispute over the South China Sea is not on the ARF agenda, since ASEAN and China have agreed to negotiate this sensitive issue at their senior-level consultative forum to avoid a region-wide discussion.

The recent U.S.-China confrontation also brings into focus once again Thailand's foreign policy toward the two countries. From now on, Bangkok will be walking on a tightrope.

Whatever it says and does must be impartial and not be seen as siding with either side. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai, who is scheduled to arrive in Washington on Wednesday, will be the first ASEAN foreign minister to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell after the confrontation with China.

Tej said that their meeting on Thursday is important in gauging the Bush administration's attitudes and policies toward Asia, and ASEAN in particular. Earlier, Tej had said that Thailand, as one of the five U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific, will assure the United States that Thailand is a good and reliable treaty ally. Thai-U.S. relations date to 1839, and are considered Asia's oldest diplomatic relationship.

In January, the Bush administration said its priority would be to strengthen relations with its treaty allies. Both countries are holding a large-scale joint military exercise, known as Cobra Gold, next month. Other U.S. allies and international observers will also participate. The annual exercise has now become a platform for a multilateral security cooperation.

Thailand will be put under the world's microscope this week when Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji visits Thailand. China's recent tough position with the United States has sent a signal to other countries that China will not take things lying down and that from now on it is a force to be reckoned with.

-- The Nation/Asia News Network