U.S.-China rivalry shifts to ASEAN's back yard

U.S.-China rivalry shifts to ASEAN's back yard

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

WASHINGTON: Diplomats of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nation here were relieved when the Chinese government released
the 24 crew members of the U.S. EP-3 spy plane last week.
However, they now fear that future U.S.-China relations will hold
their countries hostage as the world's two most powerful nations
continue their diplomatic duel.

Thai Ambassador Tej Bunnag said it is pivotal that the United
States and China have good and stable relations because "they
affect the countries in the region instantaneously and with long-
term consequences." Tej pointed out that both countries are
members of key economic and security groupings in the region.
"Their tensions, if unsettled, can be felt in these meetings and
that is not good," he said.

The United States and China are members of Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation grouping, and they attend the ASEAN-
sponsored security and economic meetings known as the ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF) and the ASEAN Post Ministerial Meeting.

At last year's ARF meeting in Bangkok, China attacked the U.S.
plan to build a regional missile-defense system, which Beijing
says is a strategy to contain its growing military clout and
neutralize its nuclear arsenal.

Of course, Tej is not alone in following the tense U.S.-China
negotiations over the spy plane. Other ASEAN ambassadors were
doing the same and were in close consultation with one another to
exchange notes and views.

Another ASEAN envoy, who asked not to be named, said he shared
Tej's sentiment because "ASEAN is now in the same boat sailing
the same rough sea". The ASEAN foreign ministers, the envoy
added, will have the opportunity to assess the U.S.-China
relations when they meet informally in Rangoon later this month.

He said the spy-plane incident has also plugged both countries
into one of the hottest issues concerning regional security: The
South China Sea. He added that whatever the United States and
China choose to say and do about the mid-air collision from now
on will have a direct bearing on the region's increasingly
volatile security situation.

Although Washington did say it was "very sorry" both about the
death of the Chinese pilot and its entry into Chinese airspace
without asking for permission, it remains firm that its aircraft
was operating in international airspace over the South China Sea
when the collision occurred.

On the other hand, Beijing has maintained that the U.S. spy
plane was flying over its exclusive economic zone in the South
China Sea, which it also claims as its historic territorial
waters, and that the flight was an infringement of its national
sovereignty.

For years, both ASEAN and China, without U.S. involvement,
have been trying to contain the disputed claims over the South
China Sea, believed to contain rich minerals, oil and marine
resources. Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines are the
ASEAN claimants. The Philippines has been for years asking for
broader engagement from the international community, including
the United States and United Nations, to help resolve the
disputes regarding the South China Sea. But China has resisted.

China's claims regarding the South China Sea made in the
aftermath of the collision overlap claims made by ASEAN
countries, especially those of Vietnam, and will certainly
further complicate the issue.

At the moment, the dispute over the South China Sea is not on
the ARF agenda, since ASEAN and China have agreed to negotiate
this sensitive issue at their senior-level consultative forum to
avoid a region-wide discussion.

The recent U.S.-China confrontation also brings into focus
once again Thailand's foreign policy toward the two countries.
From now on, Bangkok will be walking on a tightrope.

Whatever it says and does must be impartial and not be seen as
siding with either side. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai,
who is scheduled to arrive in Washington on Wednesday, will be
the first ASEAN foreign minister to meet with U.S. Secretary of
State Colin Powell after the confrontation with China.

Tej said that their meeting on Thursday is important in
gauging the Bush administration's attitudes and policies toward
Asia, and ASEAN in particular. Earlier, Tej had said that
Thailand, as one of the five U.S. allies in the Asia-Pacific,
will assure the United States that Thailand is a good and
reliable treaty ally. Thai-U.S. relations date to 1839, and are
considered Asia's oldest diplomatic relationship.

In January, the Bush administration said its priority would be
to strengthen relations with its treaty allies. Both countries
are holding a large-scale joint military exercise, known as Cobra
Gold, next month. Other U.S. allies and international observers
will also participate. The annual exercise has now become a
platform for a multilateral security cooperation.

Thailand will be put under the world's microscope this week
when Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji visits Thailand. China's
recent tough position with the United States has sent a signal to
other countries that China will not take things lying down and
that from now on it is a force to be reckoned with.

-- The Nation/Asia News Network