US-China Rivalry and the Thucydides Trap: Who Will Ultimately Fall?

Relations between the United States and China are currently at their most complex point in recent decades. On one hand, both nations continue to compete in trade, technology, and military strength. On the other hand, Washington and Beijing find it increasingly difficult to truly decouple.

Analyses from international media outlets, including Yenisaf $ ext{afak}$, RIA Novosti, and The War Zone (TWZ), describe a shared reality: the world is witnessing a struggle for global influence between the two most powerful nations of the 21st century. This competition is no longer merely about economics; it has moved towards a much larger objective: determining the face of the future world order.

Global fears regarding the ‘Thucydides Trap’ have become a prominent theme in global geopolitics. The term, popularised by Harvard political scientist Graham Allison, is based on the history of the war between Athens and Sparta in ancient Greece. The core of the theory is simple: when an established power feels its position is threatened by a rising power, a major conflict often becomes difficult to avoid. In the current context, the United States is viewed as the established power, while China is the rapidly growing rising power. Allison notes that of 16 major power transitions in the last 500 years, 12 ended in war. Consequently, many observers fear that the Washington-Beijing rivalry could lead the world into a new major conflict.

However, Chinese President Xi Jinping is attempting to reject the notion that war is an unavoidable destiny. Xi stated: ‘There is no such thing as the Thucydides Trap in this world. However, if great powers repeatedly make strategic miscalculations, they can create such a trap for themselves.’ Xi’s statement indicates that Beijing wishes to avoid a direct clash with America. China appears to understand that a war between the world’s two largest nations would be a global catastrophe, affecting not only both nations but the international economy as well.