Upcoming Economic Data Release Predicted to Pressure Rupiah Towards Rp 18,250
A number of economic data points are set to be released next week by both the Central Agency on Statistics (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI). These figures are expected to show signs of weakness, potentially pressuring the rupiah exchange rate towards the level of Rp 18,250 per US dollar.
“Next week, the market will be watching various upcoming releases, particularly the trade balance, which is likely to show a deficit for June. This will impact the rupiah moving forward,” stated currency and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi in a statement to journalists on Sunday (2/8/2026).
Furthermore, Ibrahim predicts that July 2026 inflation will moderate, as the prices of basic necessities have relatively declined amidst market interventions. He estimates that July 2026 inflation will remain below 3.34 per cent year-on-year (yoy).
Another critical economic indicator is Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserve position. Ibrahim predicts that foreign exchange reserves in July 2026 will decrease from the June 2026 position of 145.6 billion US dollars. These reserves are expected to be sufficient to finance import requirements for only 4.9 months.
“This means it does not meet the international standard where a country with a BBB debt rating should maintain foreign exchange reserves for at least five months,” he noted.
BPS is scheduled to release Indonesia’s trade balance and Consumer Price Index (CPI), or inflation, on Monday (3/8/2026) at 11:00 WIB. Meanwhile, foreign exchange reserve data is typically released by Bank Indonesia on the 7th or 8th of every month.
Additionally, the release of the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) is also expected to influence rupiah movements. Ibrahim predicts that the July 2026 IKK will decline further. According to his records, the IKK dropped from 129 in January 2026 to 117.8 in June 2026.
“There is a high possibility that in July 2026, it will fall to 116.6,” he predicted.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is also expected to remain in the contraction zone, below the 50 level, though remaining above 46.9. According to Ibrahim, this condition indicates a decline in manufacturing sector activity, which impacts labour absorption.
“This indicates that the data to be released by BPS and BI next week will influence the movement of the rupiah. The rupiah is likely to weaken, potentially approaching the level of Rp 18,250 to around Rp 18,300,” he stated.
IKK data is usually released by BI between the 8th and 10th of each month, or during the second week. Meanwhile, BI PMI data is published quarterly. For the second quarter of 2026, the data is estimated to have been released around 17 July 2026.