Uncertain Indonesia

Uncertain Indonesia

Before the fall of president Soeharto a year ago this month, Indonesia won a US$49 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund, wrapped up in conditions to curtail corruption and introduce some transparency into government.

Bolstered by a change in leadership which has at least halted the undisguised nepotism of the past, reforms have helped to get the Indonesian economy back on track, even if the process is unfinished and fraught with pitfalls.

Politically it is a different story. The crisis in East Timor and calls for self-determination in Aceh and Irian Jaya suggest the country might still disintegrate. The government plans to give a fairer share of revenue to outer provinces, which possess much of the natural assets, yet receive a pittance in return. But last-ditch efforts to patch over cracks which have widened over decades could make things worse by spreading discontent to less resource-rich regions.

The election on June 7 is unlikely to bring radical changes. It involves a form of proportional representation where party leaders choose their representatives after the voting. Critics claim the method will favor the old guard who could dominate the new 500-seat parliament.

Corruption remains rampant, with middlemen farming out government contracts to relatives, and the banks are saddled with huge loans of which 95 percent are doubtful.

Meanwhile, fear of more unrest is driving many ethnic Chinese to leave the country until the campaign is over. Improving economics may help to calm tempers; but one year on, there is a long road ahead, and few guarantees of a united or more stable society at the end of it.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong