Uncertain Indonesia

Uncertain Indonesia

Before the fall of president Soeharto a year ago this month,
Indonesia won a US$49 billion loan from the International
Monetary Fund, wrapped up in conditions to curtail corruption and
introduce some transparency into government.

Bolstered by a change in leadership which has at least halted
the undisguised nepotism of the past, reforms have helped to get
the Indonesian economy back on track, even if the process is
unfinished and fraught with pitfalls.

Politically it is a different story. The crisis in East Timor
and calls for self-determination in Aceh and Irian Jaya suggest
the country might still disintegrate. The government plans to
give a fairer share of revenue to outer provinces, which possess
much of the natural assets, yet receive a pittance in return. But
last-ditch efforts to patch over cracks which have widened over
decades could make things worse by spreading discontent to less
resource-rich regions.

The election on June 7 is unlikely to bring radical changes.
It involves a form of proportional representation where party
leaders choose their representatives after the voting. Critics
claim the method will favor the old guard who could dominate the
new 500-seat parliament.

Corruption remains rampant, with middlemen farming out
government contracts to relatives, and the banks are saddled with
huge loans of which 95 percent are doubtful.

Meanwhile, fear of more unrest is driving many ethnic Chinese
to leave the country until the campaign is over. Improving
economics may help to calm tempers; but one year on, there is a
long road ahead, and few guarantees of a united or more stable
society at the end of it.

-- The South China Morning Post, Hong Kong