UN Warns of Super El Niño Risks; Nations Including Indonesia Prepare

The world has entered an ‘extreme weather danger zone’ as the impacts of El Niño begin to be felt globally. This warning was issued by UN Secretary-General António Guterres.

“El Niño is expanding before our eyes. Science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in an uncharted and unpredictable condition. Sea surface temperatures are also continuing to rise,” said Guterres.

Latest data from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) shows that this natural weather phenomenon has the potential to be the strongest in over 70 years. Predictions suggest this condition will persist until February 2027.

The most palpable effect of El Niño worldwide is changes in weather. Some regions are experiencing droughts, while others are being hit by typhoons and massive flooding.

Weather forecasters have also added that El Niño will increase temperatures in several regions. It could even exacerbate the implications of global warming due to the impacts of human-induced climate change.

Despite early warning systems being strengthened and medical assistance prepared in advance, the strength of this event is deeply concerning, particularly for vulnerable groups.

The WMO, the UN body for weather and climate, stated that it has undertaken a “massive mobilisation” to disseminate extreme weather forecasts related to El Niño to various communities worldwide.

WMO Secretary-General, Prof. Celeste Saulo, warned: “El Niño has the potential to deal a massive blow to societies and economies worldwide.”

El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon related to changes in wind patterns that develops in the Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon allows rising sea surface temperatures to spread eastward, releasing heat into the atmosphere.

Sea temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have risen significantly in recent months, a sign that El Niño is strengthening. In key monitoring areas of the Pacific, sea surface temperatures in recent weeks have been more than 2°C above average. Forecasts even show monthly sea surface temperatures could reach 4°C above average, while temperatures below the Pacific surface have risen sharply, with some locations more than 8°C above average.

Consequently, this phenomenon is being described as potentially the strongest El Niño since 1950, as it is expected to exceed existing thresholds.

Above-normal sea surface temperatures are also expected in other parts of the world, including the Indian Ocean, the tropical Atlantic, and around the coast of Australia. Given its marine biodiversity, the change in sea temperatures is a particular concern for Australia.

In recent years, Australia has faced extreme marine heatwave phenomena triggered by climate change. Dr Alistair Hobday, a lead researcher at the Australian Science Agency, told the BBC that El Niño tends to bring extreme heat that also triggers disasters.

While forecasts suggest the Great Barrier Reef might avoid the worst-case scenario this year, providing time for coral recovery, Southern Australia is being hit hard. Recent marine heatwaves in Southern Australia and Tasmania led to ecological disasters, including starving penguins, mass fish deaths, algal blooms, and jellyfish invasions.

Australia has since introduced an early warning system for marine environmental crises to help prepare financial aid for the fisheries sector, species relocation, and enhanced coral monitoring. However, the current situation appears unpredictable, and Hobday admitted to being “quite worried.”

Reduced rainfall is expected to bring droughts and trade disruptions. The WMO predicts significant changes in rainfall patterns in the coming months. Drier conditions are expected to cover Southeast Asia, Central America, and northern South America, increasing the risk of drought and wildfires.

On Thursday (03/09), the number of ships traversing the Panama Canal will be reduced by more than 10% in anticipation of lower rainfall. Approximately 14,000 ships use this waterway annually. As a vital route for global trade, the canal is also a major revenue source for Panama, generating around US$3 billion per year.

Indonesia will face a longer dry season this year, similar to other countries in Southeast Asia. Residents in Central Kalimantan told BBC News Indonesia that wildfires have been occurring “for more than a month.”

“The smoke has become quite thick. When we go outside, our eyes begin to sting. The smell of smoke is also quite strong,” said Darwin Romy. Authorities have stated they intend to deploy cloud seeding aircraft to trigger rain to extinguish the fires. The government has also promised resources to control the fires and has arrested dozens of people suspected of intentional burning to clear land.