UK PM Keir Starmer Could Resign as Early as Tomorrow, Here's Why

The political future of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is said to have entered its most crucial phase after Andy Burnham’s landslide victory in the Makerfield by-election in Greater Manchester triggered a fresh wave of pressure within the Labour Party. A number of senior party figures now believe Starmer is preparing to announce a timetable for his resignation from Downing Street in the near future.

According to several Labour Party sources, Starmer has reached the conclusion that his position as head of government is no longer tenable. This conclusion reportedly emerged after a series of conversations in recent days with cabinet ministers, Downing Street advisers, trade union leaders, and party donors.

Although he is still spending the weekend at Chequers with his wife, Victoria Starmer, to consider a final decision, several senior Labour figures expect an official statement regarding his future could be delivered as early as Monday.

A Labour member of the House of Lords close to Starmer said the prime minister does not intend to leave his post abruptly. “He is not going to simply walk out of Downing Street and create a vacuum. He will arrange a slow and orderly step back, as a form of responsibility and dignity,” the source said.

He added that Starmer now understands the political reality he faces. “I think he sees the reality that exists. Stopping the ‘chaos’ [as he rightly called it] is now impossible by staying on, so there is only one option. I think he is beginning to see it as the responsible choice to serve the country and the party.”

A similar view came from another senior Labour figure who assessed that Starmer now appears to have accepted the possibility of resigning. “He seems to have resigned himself to stepping down,” the source said. “He is confronting the fact that the support is no longer there. The fact is everyone knows this is no longer a sustainable situation. There is certainly sadness in all of this, but sometimes there is something inevitable in politics and as Boris Johnson said, ‘When the herd moves, it moves’.”

A cabinet minister said Starmer is currently facing the situation with a cool head after holding a number of private conversations with his closest allies. “He just wants to do what is right for this country and, after speaking with the people he wanted to speak with, he is now spending quality time with his most important adviser, Vic,” the minister said.

Meanwhile, Burnham is scheduled to be sworn in as an MP on Monday and will meet with Starmer early this week. Burnham’s supporters claim the former Mayor of Greater Manchester has now secured the backing of more than 201 Labour MPs to challenge Starmer’s leadership if the prime minister does not resign voluntarily. That number is considered highly significant as it represents more than half of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Under these conditions, Starmer is said to no longer be able to assure the King that he can still command the confidence of a majority in the House of Commons.

“There is no doubt Andy has become much stronger because of that result on Thursday night,” a senior Labour figure said. “The question on MPs’ minds is: who can stop a Reform government? He has shown he can do it in Makerfield in a very convincing way.”

Former cabinet minister Lord Falconer even assessed that Starmer has lost almost all of his political authority. “He has absolutely no authority left because everyone assumes Andy Burnham will soon challenge him in a leadership contest and everyone assumes he will win,” Falconer told the BBC.

Starmer is now also facing pressure to clarify his intentions before a crucial cabinet meeting scheduled for next Tuesday. In that meeting, a number of ministers are reportedly planning to state directly that Starmer’s leadership has ended. Several key names reported to be urging Starmer to set a resignation timetable include Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, and Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander. Meanwhile, Jonathan Reynolds, the Labour Party chief whip, is said to have conveyed the strong desire among MPs for the leadership transition to proceed in an orderly manner.

Among Starmer’s supporters, there is an expectation that he will announce a plan to step down in September so that his successor can be formally ratified at the Labour Party’s annual conference. “There is a downside, of course, but the situation is what it is,” a senior party figure said. “Keir has realised the game is up and what must be done now is to exit gracefully. What he wants to avoid is humiliation. But the greatest humiliation for Keir personally would be if he stood in a party leadership election and lost by a landslide.”

People who have spoken directly with Starmer describe the prime minister’s mood as more reflective than confrontational. “He is not hallucinating. This is not a prime minister hiding in a bunker. He is clearly contemplating the Makerfield result. He is contemplating what a leadership contest means. He is not asking anyone for pledges of loyalty,” an ally said. Another senior Labour source quoted former US President Barack Obama’s words: “Sometimes you just have to let the river take you.”