UK Faces Recession Threat if Hormuz Strait Remains Closed Until 2027

The United Kingdom is at risk of entering a recession in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to a report by consultancy EY cited by The Independent. The report suggests that if the strait is not reopened by early or mid-2027, the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by only 0.5 percent in 2026 before contracting by 0.2 percent in 2027. Under this worst-case scenario, EY concluded that inflation could surge to 6.4 percent by the end of 2026 due to a dramatic increase in oil and energy costs. US Central Command (CENTCOM) claimed its strikes were in retaliation for Iranian actions against merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian forces responded to the US attacks by launching counter-strikes against American military bases in the Middle East, blockading the Strait of Hormuz, and accusing the US of violating a ceasefire agreement.