UI Analyst: US-Iran Deal Still Has Chance of Success Despite Israel's Refusal to Withdraw

The agreement between the United States and Iran to form a deconfliction cell aimed at easing regional tensions, including in Lebanon, is still considered to have a strong chance of success despite Israel’s refusal to withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon. This view was expressed by Suzie Sudarman, Chair of the Centre for American Studies at the University of Indonesia (UI), when asked about the prospects for the Washington-Tehran deal amid the Israeli government’s hardline stance. According to Suzie, several international relations analyses indicate that Israel’s position in its relationship with the United States could change if Washington’s strategic interests shift. “According to Mearsheimer, after resizing Israel, it is very possible that the US itself could attack Israel,” Suzie told Media Indonesia on Monday (22/6). She also highlighted a change in the United States’ approach towards Iran, which she said is increasingly evident in recent statements by US President Donald Trump. Suzie noted that for years, Iran was often perceived as an irrational, ideological state that tended to take risky steps. However, she sees a shift in Washington’s perspective towards Tehran. “Iran, which was previously considered irrational, ideological and suicidal, is now seen by Trump as a country with which the United States is very happy to converse because they are friendly and kind,” she said. Meanwhile, Suzie assessed that the formation of a deconfliction cell could potentially create a new security mechanism in the Middle East that no longer relies entirely on the United States’ role as guarantor of regional stability. “A new way of overseeing regional security will emerge. The Gulf states are beginning to realise that the United States cannot be relied upon as the security guardian of the Gulf countries,” she explained. She believes the Gulf states are beginning to recognise the need to build a more independent security approach as trust in Washington’s commitment to protecting their interests wanes. Regarding possible steps the United States might take if Israel continues its military operations in Lebanon, Suzie again referred to the views of American political scientist John Mearsheimer. According to her, there is a possibility that Washington will take firmer action to maintain the credibility of the agreement it has built with Iran. “According to Mearsheimer, it is possible that America will attack Israel,” Suzie concluded.