UGM Sociologist Warns of Social Stability Risks as Rupiah Weakens
During Tuesday morning trading on 19 May, the rupiah was seen moving around Rp17,733 per US dollar, continuing a depreciation trend seen in recent weeks. Arie Sujito, a sociologist at Universitas Gadjah Mada (UGM), warned of social consequences arising from the rupiah’s depreciation.
He said the depreciation directly affects the social and economic life of people, particularly the urban middle class. He noted that rising living costs force households to recalibrate their expenditures and adjust various life plans that had been prepared.
He added that the situation poses a major challenge for the state to maintain economic stability while preserving its capacity to subsidise for society.
“If the country does not have the ability to address this quickly, the impact will cascade,” he said.
According to Arie, ongoing economic pressure can develop into broader social problems if not anticipated promptly. When people struggle to meet basic needs, the impact is no longer limited to household economics alone.
The situation could affect social stability as people experience a diminished sense of security about their livelihoods. Vulnerability, he said, will grow larger if the foundations of the national economy are not strong enough to withstand prolonged global pressures.
“Once you reach the level of basic needs, it will have social repercussions,” he explained.
Arie argued that the country has in fact implemented various social protection programmes to bolster resilience amid economic pressures. However, he believes those measures do not yet fully address the crisis on the ground. There is a gap between the policies designed by the government and the everyday realities faced by the people.
This condition means that social assistance programmes and economic interventions have not been sufficiently effective in curbing rising social vulnerability in society.
“There is a disconnect between the programme efforts and the crisis,” he said.
He also highlighted reduced fiscal capacity at both the national and regional levels, which he believes has further increased the social-economic burden on households. He suggested that cuts in transfers from the central government have made it harder for regions to finance development and public services, with impacts visible in sectors such as education, which face budgetary cuts and financing constraints.
In such a situation, institutions must be able to endure under mounting economic pressure. Arie noted that the issue cannot be treated as a minor matter because it is directly linked to the sustainability of public services for citizens.
Furthermore, Arie warned that an economic crisis not addressed quickly could develop into a social and even political crisis. Therefore, the government needs to prepare strategic steps and emergency policies capable of dampening the crisis’s impact swiftly and precisely targeted.
“If the economic pressure continues to accumulate without a clear solution, this situation is feared to affect social stability and public trust in the state,” he concluded.