Two strategic developments will affect peace, stability in the region

Two strategic developments will affect peace, stability in the region

Jusuf Wanandi, Jakarta

For the East Asia/Asia-Pacific regions two main strategic
trends will influence the future peace and stability -- the key
requirements for maintaining the areas' economic growth.

The first trend is the strategic presence of the U.S. in East
Asia and the future adjustments that are made imperative by the
revolution of military affairs and the restructuring of the
department of defense operations.

Since World War II, the U.S. has been the dominant power in
the Asia Pacific region. Its presence has provided the
underpinning for the region's peace and stability both during and
after the Cold War. As the only superpower, U.S. "hegemony" is
very real and is strongly felt in the region, where the U.S. has
become the arbiter of maintaining peace and stability. Every
country in the region, including China, recognizes the US'
presence and its role in encouraging peace and stability.

After the Cold War was over, there was a debate in the U.S.
body politic about the peace dividend and the future strategic
role of the U.S. in the world and in regions including East Asia.
More recently, to prevent instabilities the Nye program under
president Bill Clinton proposed the 100,000 U.S. troops in the
region be maintained.

Due to changes of strategy, structure and operations of the
U.S. military and in dealing with new threats and security
issues, namely global terrorism and weapons of mass destruction
(WMD), the U.S. is now more than ever militarily present in the
region, although operational deployments are being adjusted.
Consultations on these adjustments are ongoing and are needed to
prevent misunderstandings on the part of U.S. allies and friends.

The second strategic development in East Asia is regional
community building. This has been driven mainly by the economic
integration of the region that began with the second wave of
Japanese investments in the mid-1980s. For the time being,
community building will rest on economic cooperation, which has
become the region's main agenda since the financial crisis in
East Asia in 1997.

One major development is in the financial field, based on the
Chiang Mai Agreement, to create self-help facilities that can
help prevent and overcome financial crises in the region in the
future. The free trade agreements being negotiated between ASEAN
and China and between ASEAN and Japan should be seen as a part of
these efforts. In addition, several areas of functional
cooperation, such as coping with SARS and the avian flu, have
enhanced the region's sense of solidarity.

The vision of an East Asian Community is first and foremost
about achieving peace, stability and progress in East Asia. It
has three main strategic objectives.

First, to create a regional institution that can accommodate a
rising China as a constructive member of the region and to enable
China to develop into a full status-quo power.

Second, to assist in the normalization between China and
Japan, the two major powers in the region and the two potential
leaders of the East Asian Community.

Third, to assist in alleviating the possibility of future
confrontation between the U.S. and China when China becomes an
economic-military superpower in its own right during the next few
decades.

For this to happen a lot of effort is needed for East Asians
to convince the U.S. this new regional entity is not against its
interests or plans to limit the U.S. presence in the region.
Being the closest ally of the U.S., Japan has a pivotal role to
play to make the East Asian Community acceptable to the U.S.

The principle of open regionalism should be adhered to by this
new regional entity. This is in the region's own interest, given
its dependence on the global economy. East Asia should support
efforts to revitalize the APEC process, the primary Asia Pacific
regional institution where the U.S. is playing an important role.
It should also convince others outside the region, especially the
U.S., that East Asian regionalism is part of an effort to support
a global regime for peace and prosperity. East Asia will
cooperate with Europe and the Western Hemisphere to build such a
global regime.

In fact, the two main strategic trends in East Asian should
not confront each other, but they should complement each other in
creating peace, stability and progress in East Asia and the wider
Asia Pacific region. But for that to become a reality, relations
between the two major regional powers, namely China and Japan,
should be normalized and the U.S. should be convinced that this
new East Asian regional institution is not against its interests.

This will take time, and therefore, the idea of an East Asian
Community will move forward only step by step, first in the
economic field, and later in the political-security field. ASEAN
can support the process by a readiness to transform the ASEAN + 3
(China, Japan and South Korea) cooperation into a more full-
fledged East Asian cooperation and community building, which
should involve institutionalization as well.

ASEAN can support this process by getting its own house in
order. In so doing ASEAN, in cooperation with South Korea, could
again play an important role as the catalyst to accelerate the
process of cooperating, since the two big powers are at present
not in the position to do so. Accelerated cooperation could
assist in assuring the three strategic objectives mentioned
above, which are so critically important to the region, can be
achieved within a reasonable time frame.

The implementation in the near future of the first step
towards an ASEAN community sharing common economic, security and
socio-political goals as decided upon by the Bali Concord II is
critical for ASEAN credibility.

The writer is co-founder and a member of the board of trustees
of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).