Turning over a new leaf in RI politics

Turning over a new leaf in RI politics

Jusuf Wanandi

It has been a tradition for The Jakarta Post in the last few years to produce a special edition on developments in the various fields of life during the outgoing year and a projection on what to expect in the coming year. For that purpose The Jakarta Post has invited some of the best minds in their field to contribute.

Looking back at developments in the political field in 2004, nothing appeared to be more important than the elections held in April for the House of Representatives, the Regional Representatives Council (DPD) and the local legislatures, as well as the first direct presidential elections in July and the runoff in September. It was Indonesia's year of elections.

The elections have been fair, peaceful and democratic. Indonesians should be proud of themselves that they have achieved such encouraging and positive results. This augurs well for democracy and the political maturity of the populace.

The elections were held in a festive, but serious, mood. People were happy and friendly, and everyone in the neighborhood helped to erect the temporary polling stations, manage the voting process, count the votes and send the results to the General Elections Commission (KPU). For the first time, the KPU as the organizers of the elections were independent from the government and political parties. They consisted of representatives of NGOs, universities and the media. As they were inexperienced, they were not well organized initially, but in the course of the process they matured in the job and did a remarkable job in preparing and holding elections that took place without any major mistakes or irregularities.

Comparing it to the elections held by Indonesia's neighbors, such as the Philippines and India, ours did not involve major incidents or fighting. No one was hurt or killed. Members of the legislature were elected by just over 80 percent of registered voters, while the president was elected by almost 80 percent of registered voters.

It was also seen as a democratic election, because the people did decide who to vote for by themselves. They were less dependent on social or political leaders than before. This was especially true in the presidential election where there were no political loyalties on the part of voters.

They have ended their support for the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) that emerged as the biggest party in 1999 with 34 percent of the votes. PDI-P only got 19 percent in 2004. People were disappointed with PDI-P's poor performance in leading the government especially in the areas of employment, corruption, law and order problems and regional conflicts in Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (Aceh) and Papua.

The Golkar Party became the dominant party in the legislature, although it gained slightly fewer votes compared to the previous elections, 21 percent of the votes in 2004 as compared to 22 percent in 1999. People have not yet come to trust Golkar completely.

Two other parties did relatively well. The Democratic Party of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) got 7.45 percent (gaining 50 seats in the House) although it is a new party. This was a result primarily of SBY's popularity. It did not have a solid party network, as it was established only two years before the elections.

The other party was the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which is at the right end of the political spectrum. They shrewdly used anticorruption as the main theme of their campaign, instead of sharia or other Islamic themes. They were able to increase their votes from 1.5 percent in 1999 to 7.5 percent in 2004, and also gained 50 seats in the House.

Both the Democratic Party and the PKS won in the Jakarta region, and together have a comfortable majority in the local legislature, the Jakarta City Council. However, this is no guarantee that they can rule Jakarta, because in the elections of the speaker of the City Council, they both lost to a candidate supported by Golkar and PDI-P.

Greater voter independence was shown in the presidential elections. Although some new elements have come up with the increase of votes for PKS and the very decent result for the Democratic Party, in the House of Representatives the majority remains in the hands of the traditional parties: Golkar, PDI-P, the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party (PKB) which is supported by NU, the largest Muslim socioreligious organization, and the National Mandate Party (PAN) which is supported by Muhammadiyah, the second largest Muslim socioreligious organization.

In the legislative elections, people were still listening to their political or social leaders. However, in the presidential elections, people have shown greater independence mainly due to the influence of TV which has penetrated the grass roots effectively.

SBY has benefited immensely from this. Not only is he telegenic and can speak well on TV, but as Megawati's Coordinating Minister, he has been using it to the maximum for his popularity. He has become the hope for change and improvement.

On the other hand Megawati has been so disappointing to the people because she never tried very hard to reach out to them. Most importantly, she did not show that she could change and bring real improvements in her leadership if chosen for the second term.

During the campaign she was still surrounded by assistants who were considered corrupt. She also did not indicate that she would like to have new people in her Cabinet.

The people also have demonstrated that they are not in favor of Wiranto despite the backing he received from Golkar, the biggest party, because they don't trust him after all the accusations of military abuses he was allegedly responsible for. Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz were also rejected because their popularity and their political networks were limited.

In foreign policy, the year 2004 has brought some change to Indonesia's role in foreign affairs. Indonesia, being the chair of ASEAN, has pursued its idea of an ASEAN Security Community to be established in parallel with Singapore's proposal for an ASEAN Economic Community. At the ASEAN Summit in Vientianne, Laos, the Plan of Action was endorsed by the leaders.

Indonesia's foreign policy was dormant following the crisis of 1998 until Hassan Wirayuda showed leadership in 2004, supported by a new generation of bright and young diplomats under him at the foreign ministry. Indonesia could again provide leadership in the region, especially in ASEAN. The region has longed for this.

What to expect in 2005? And what are the factors that will determine how 2005 is going to fare?

The picture of 2005 is still mixed. On the one hand, the challenges that Indonesia faces are huge. The economy needs new investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI) to be able to grow by 6 percent to 7 percent annually, which is necessary to overcome the unemployment problem.

Corruption, which is still rampant, has to be tackled to make the government credible and restore hope for the future. Regional conflicts in Aceh and Papua have to be settled politically. The rule of law and the court system need significant improvements. Law and order problems have to be tackled. Above all, leadership at the highest level has yet to show resoluteness and decisiveness.

There were high hopes that SBY could exert this kind of leadership that has been so critically absent after Soeharto's fall. However, there was immediate disappointment with his first act in establishing the Cabinet. He has formed a rainbow Cabinet, although in fact he got a strong mandate directly from the people with 51 percent of the vote. The hope now is that he will do better in the future and the people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Jusuf Kalla, his Vice President, who remains rather controversial, has shown more leadership. There is also hope that he would be able to lead an economic team that is more business oriented. There are some concerns of conflict of interest, but the team should show that they can overcome those concerns.

It is still too early yet to make any definite conclusion about the new government. Although there are some worries about the Cabinet, it should be given a chance to implement its programs.

The second problem for 2005 is the relationship between the government and the legislature. The legislature has become very assertive and is powerful because they have a say on many things: legislation, budget, appointments of important personnel of state agencies such as the central bank, Supreme Court, police chief, commander in chief of the Indonesian Military, etc.

The legislature is dominated by the opposition parties, Golkar and PDI-P. Indonesia's legislature has yet to learn about the role of the loyal opposition, which could differentiate between valid criticism and correction of the executive branch and opposition just for the sake of opposition.

Whether Golkar and PDI-P can really implement this role will mostly depend on the outcome of their respective congress, which will determine who is going to lead the party in the future. This will determine whether 2005 will be a new beginning for Indonesia to get back on its feet and to develop again.

The year 2005 should be a continuation of Indonesia's leadership in regional affairs, starting with the preparation for the East Asian Summit in Malaysia. The idea of East Asian regionalism has always been supported by Indonesia. However, an East Asian Summit must be well prepared, so that this regional initiative can get off the ground and develop in the future.

Experiences in the region showed that ideas on regional cooperation have begun with a lot of enthusiasm but without working out their full consequences, particularly on the need for institution building in the long term. That has happened with APEC and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which continue to struggle to maintain their relevance. For instance, there should be clarity about the membership of the East Asian Summit so that it could advance the ASEAN+3 process that is already in place. ASEAN also should strengthen her cooperation through implementing the Plan of Action of the ASEAN Community, before she could play a meaningful role in the greater region. Indonesia's leadership will be critical in the building of regional institutions.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of The Jakarta Post