Turning over a new leaf in RI politics

Turning over a new leaf in RI politics

Jusuf Wanandi

It has been a tradition for The Jakarta Post in the last few
years to produce a special edition on developments in the various
fields of life during the outgoing year and a projection on what
to expect in the coming year. For that purpose The Jakarta Post
has invited some of the best minds in their field to contribute.

Looking back at developments in the political field in 2004,
nothing appeared to be more important than the elections held in
April for the House of Representatives, the Regional
Representatives Council (DPD) and the local legislatures, as well
as the first direct presidential elections in July and the runoff
in September. It was Indonesia's year of elections.

The elections have been fair, peaceful and democratic.
Indonesians should be proud of themselves that they have achieved
such encouraging and positive results. This augurs well for
democracy and the political maturity of the populace.

The elections were held in a festive, but serious, mood.
People were happy and friendly, and everyone in the neighborhood
helped to erect the temporary polling stations, manage the voting
process, count the votes and send the results to the General
Elections Commission (KPU). For the first time, the KPU as the
organizers of the elections were independent from the government
and political parties. They consisted of representatives of NGOs,
universities and the media. As they were inexperienced, they were
not well organized initially, but in the course of the process
they matured in the job and did a remarkable job in preparing and
holding elections that took place without any major mistakes or
irregularities.

Comparing it to the elections held by Indonesia's neighbors,
such as the Philippines and India, ours did not involve major
incidents or fighting. No one was hurt or killed. Members of the
legislature were elected by just over 80 percent of registered
voters, while the president was elected by almost 80 percent of
registered voters.

It was also seen as a democratic election, because the people
did decide who to vote for by themselves. They were less
dependent on social or political leaders than before. This was
especially true in the presidential election where there were no
political loyalties on the part of voters.

They have ended their support for the Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P) that emerged as the biggest party in
1999 with 34 percent of the votes. PDI-P only got 19 percent in
2004. People were disappointed with PDI-P's poor performance in
leading the government especially in the areas of employment,
corruption, law and order problems and regional conflicts in
Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (Aceh) and Papua.

The Golkar Party became the dominant party in the legislature,
although it gained slightly fewer votes compared to the previous
elections, 21 percent of the votes in 2004 as compared to 22
percent in 1999. People have not yet come to trust Golkar
completely.

Two other parties did relatively well. The Democratic Party of
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) got 7.45 percent (gaining 50 seats
in the House) although it is a new party. This was a result
primarily of SBY's popularity. It did not have a solid party
network, as it was established only two years before the
elections.

The other party was the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which
is at the right end of the political spectrum. They shrewdly used
anticorruption as the main theme of their campaign, instead of
sharia or other Islamic themes. They were able to increase their
votes from 1.5 percent in 1999 to 7.5 percent in 2004, and also
gained 50 seats in the House.

Both the Democratic Party and the PKS won in the Jakarta
region, and together have a comfortable majority in the local
legislature, the Jakarta City Council. However, this is no
guarantee that they can rule Jakarta, because in the elections of
the speaker of the City Council, they both lost to a candidate
supported by Golkar and PDI-P.

Greater voter independence was shown in the presidential
elections. Although some new elements have come up with the
increase of votes for PKS and the very decent result for the
Democratic Party, in the House of Representatives the majority
remains in the hands of the traditional parties: Golkar, PDI-P,
the United Development Party (PPP), the National Awakening Party
(PKB) which is supported by NU, the largest Muslim socioreligious
organization, and the National Mandate Party (PAN) which is
supported by Muhammadiyah, the second largest Muslim
socioreligious organization.

In the legislative elections, people were still listening to
their political or social leaders. However, in the presidential
elections, people have shown greater independence mainly due to
the influence of TV which has penetrated the grass roots
effectively.

SBY has benefited immensely from this. Not only is he
telegenic and can speak well on TV, but as Megawati's
Coordinating Minister, he has been using it to the maximum for
his popularity. He has become the hope for change and
improvement.

On the other hand Megawati has been so disappointing to the
people because she never tried very hard to reach out to them.
Most importantly, she did not show that she could change and
bring real improvements in her leadership if chosen for the
second term.

During the campaign she was still surrounded by assistants who
were considered corrupt. She also did not indicate that she would
like to have new people in her Cabinet.

The people also have demonstrated that they are not in favor
of Wiranto despite the backing he received from Golkar, the
biggest party, because they don't trust him after all the
accusations of military abuses he was allegedly responsible for.
Amien Rais and Hamzah Haz were also rejected because their
popularity and their political networks were limited.

In foreign policy, the year 2004 has brought some change to
Indonesia's role in foreign affairs. Indonesia, being the chair
of ASEAN, has pursued its idea of an ASEAN Security Community to
be established in parallel with Singapore's proposal for an ASEAN
Economic Community. At the ASEAN Summit in Vientianne, Laos, the
Plan of Action was endorsed by the leaders.

Indonesia's foreign policy was dormant following the crisis of
1998 until Hassan Wirayuda showed leadership in 2004, supported
by a new generation of bright and young diplomats under him at
the foreign ministry. Indonesia could again provide leadership in
the region, especially in ASEAN. The region has longed for this.

What to expect in 2005? And what are the factors that will
determine how 2005 is going to fare?

The picture of 2005 is still mixed. On the one hand, the
challenges that Indonesia faces are huge. The economy needs new
investment, including foreign direct investment (FDI) to be able
to grow by 6 percent to 7 percent annually, which is necessary to
overcome the unemployment problem.

Corruption, which is still rampant, has to be tackled to make
the government credible and restore hope for the future. Regional
conflicts in Aceh and Papua have to be settled politically. The
rule of law and the court system need significant improvements.
Law and order problems have to be tackled. Above all, leadership
at the highest level has yet to show resoluteness and
decisiveness.

There were high hopes that SBY could exert this kind of
leadership that has been so critically absent after Soeharto's
fall. However, there was immediate disappointment with his first
act in establishing the Cabinet. He has formed a rainbow Cabinet,
although in fact he got a strong mandate directly from the people
with 51 percent of the vote. The hope now is that he will do
better in the future and the people are willing to give him the
benefit of the doubt.

Jusuf Kalla, his Vice President, who remains rather
controversial, has shown more leadership. There is also hope that
he would be able to lead an economic team that is more business
oriented. There are some concerns of conflict of interest, but
the team should show that they can overcome those concerns.

It is still too early yet to make any definite conclusion
about the new government. Although there are some worries about
the Cabinet, it should be given a chance to implement its
programs.

The second problem for 2005 is the relationship between the
government and the legislature. The legislature has become very
assertive and is powerful because they have a say on many things:
legislation, budget, appointments of important personnel of state
agencies such as the central bank, Supreme Court, police chief,
commander in chief of the Indonesian Military, etc.

The legislature is dominated by the opposition parties, Golkar
and PDI-P. Indonesia's legislature has yet to learn about the
role of the loyal opposition, which could differentiate between
valid criticism and correction of the executive branch and
opposition just for the sake of opposition.

Whether Golkar and PDI-P can really implement this role will
mostly depend on the outcome of their respective congress, which
will determine who is going to lead the party in the future. This
will determine whether 2005 will be a new beginning for Indonesia
to get back on its feet and to develop again.

The year 2005 should be a continuation of Indonesia's
leadership in regional affairs, starting with the preparation for
the East Asian Summit in Malaysia. The idea of East Asian
regionalism has always been supported by Indonesia. However, an
East Asian Summit must be well prepared, so that this regional
initiative can get off the ground and develop in the future.

Experiences in the region showed that ideas on regional
cooperation have begun with a lot of enthusiasm but without
working out their full consequences, particularly on the need for
institution building in the long term. That has happened with
APEC and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which continue to
struggle to maintain their relevance. For instance, there should
be clarity about the membership of the East Asian Summit so that
it could advance the ASEAN+3 process that is already in place.
ASEAN also should strengthen her cooperation through implementing
the Plan of Action of the ASEAN Community, before she could play
a meaningful role in the greater region. Indonesia's leadership
will be critical in the building of regional institutions.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of The Jakarta Post