Turmoil is Indonesia's gravest immediate threat

SINGAPORE: Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid had intended to declare an emergency on Monday, but backed down for lack of military and Cabinet support just before he was to go on nationwide television. This disclosure comes from his Coordinating Security Minister. Instead, he issued a watered-down brief to the minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to ensure public order in the tumultuous days ahead.

An account of the maneuvering reported by Kompas, a Jakarta newspaper, shows that deep divisions in the polity are not only between the executive and the legislature, but also between the President and the Indonesian Defense Force. It quoted Bambang thus: "I myself, the military chief, the police chief, were of one voice that we would not support and openly disagreed with the issuance of an (emergency) decree."

It confirms that Indonesia is further down the road to a grave crisis situation than can be imagined. But the manner of the minister's going public on the presidential deck-shuffling, 48 hours before the House of Representatives (DPR) is thought ready to call for his impeachment, could calm the people's nerves.

It reinstates the military -- all service chiefs are opposed to Abdurrahman making draconian or undemocratic moves -- as the last remaining institution capable of averting chaos.

It will be a remarkable turnaround for the military (TNI), which had fallen into disrepute for its rogue officers and complicity in the Soeharto era and during the short stint of president B.J. Habibie.

The power gridlock in Jakarta as it stands takes some comprehending. If the elite is perplexed and resentful, it is not hard to fathom why street mobs and regional causes are a handful. This is what Bambang has been ordered to put right. Abdurrahman has been fighting a rearguard action to stave off impeachment over alleged financial irregularities. He has blown hot and cold, veering between warnings of a territorial break-up and conciliatory gestures to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The latter are a means of making peace with hostile members of the DPR, who are upset that his unconventional rule has brought Indonesia to the verge of institutional breakdown. Attorney- General Marzuki Darusman has since introduced a new element to the permutation.

He ruled that Abdurrahman was cleared of the financial charges which had brought two censures from the DPR. There is much fevered speculation: on what grounds now, besides the principle of separation of powers, would the DPR send the matter up to the higher MPR, the People's Consultative Assembly, for impeachment proceedings to begin.

The DPR is poised to take the fateful step today. Megawati's next move could stabilize the situation, but each passing day makes a compromise appear less likely.

If she accepts Abdurrahman's latest formula of realigning executive functions to favor her, the parliamentary factions which her party dominates could be placated enough to disable constitutional proceedings, even if they have been invoked. But she has not been receptive to the proposal, which is understandable as a previous offer last year proved a sham.

So, it is back to President Abdurrahman for the decisive call. The judgment of thoughtful Indonesians is that the use of the martial law alternative cannot be foreclosed despite the events of Monday. Were that to happen, turmoil is Indonesia's gravest immediate threat.

Abdurrahman's supporters are already making their presence felt in Jakarta. This is why the military and police have to stay on top of the situation, or there will be precious little left to save.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network