Turmoil is Indonesia's gravest immediate threat

Turmoil is Indonesia's gravest immediate threat

SINGAPORE: Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid had intended
to declare an emergency on Monday, but backed down for lack of
military and Cabinet support just before he was to go on
nationwide television. This disclosure comes from his
Coordinating Security Minister. Instead, he issued a watered-down
brief to the minister, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to ensure public
order in the tumultuous days ahead.

An account of the maneuvering reported by Kompas, a Jakarta
newspaper, shows that deep divisions in the polity are not only
between the executive and the legislature, but also between the
President and the Indonesian Defense Force. It quoted Bambang
thus: "I myself, the military chief, the police chief, were of
one voice that we would not support and openly disagreed with the
issuance of an (emergency) decree."

It confirms that Indonesia is further down the road to a grave
crisis situation than can be imagined. But the manner of the
minister's going public on the presidential deck-shuffling, 48
hours before the House of Representatives (DPR) is thought ready
to call for his impeachment, could calm the people's nerves.

It reinstates the military -- all service chiefs are opposed
to Abdurrahman making draconian or undemocratic moves -- as the
last remaining institution capable of averting chaos.

It will be a remarkable turnaround for the military (TNI),
which had fallen into disrepute for its rogue officers and
complicity in the Soeharto era and during the short stint of
president B.J. Habibie.

The power gridlock in Jakarta as it stands takes some
comprehending. If the elite is perplexed and resentful, it is not
hard to fathom why street mobs and regional causes are a handful.
This is what Bambang has been ordered to put right. Abdurrahman
has been fighting a rearguard action to stave off impeachment
over alleged financial irregularities. He has blown hot and cold,
veering between warnings of a territorial break-up and
conciliatory gestures to Vice President Megawati Soekarnoputri.

The latter are a means of making peace with hostile members of
the DPR, who are upset that his unconventional rule has brought
Indonesia to the verge of institutional breakdown. Attorney-
General Marzuki Darusman has since introduced a new element to
the permutation.

He ruled that Abdurrahman was cleared of the financial charges
which had brought two censures from the DPR. There is much
fevered speculation: on what grounds now, besides the principle
of separation of powers, would the DPR send the matter up to the
higher MPR, the People's Consultative Assembly, for impeachment
proceedings to begin.

The DPR is poised to take the fateful step today. Megawati's
next move could stabilize the situation, but each passing day
makes a compromise appear less likely.

If she accepts Abdurrahman's latest formula of realigning
executive functions to favor her, the parliamentary factions
which her party dominates could be placated enough to disable
constitutional proceedings, even if they have been invoked. But
she has not been receptive to the proposal, which is
understandable as a previous offer last year proved a sham.

So, it is back to President Abdurrahman for the decisive call.
The judgment of thoughtful Indonesians is that the use of the
martial law alternative cannot be foreclosed despite the events
of Monday. Were that to happen, turmoil is Indonesia's gravest
immediate threat.

Abdurrahman's supporters are already making their presence
felt in Jakarta. This is why the military and police have to stay
on top of the situation, or there will be precious little left to
save.

-- The Straits Times/Asia News Network