Turkish, Russian, and Arab Analysts: The Secret Behind the Missile War That Is Instead Accelerating the West's Decline

REPUBLIKA.CO.ID, JAKARTA – At the Boao Forum for Asia held in China, economists are presenting encouraging figures: the Asian economy is projected to grow by 4.5 per cent in 2026, contributing nearly 50 per cent of global gross domestic product. At the same time, in the skies between Iran and Israel, hundreds of ballistic missiles are tracing paths of destruction that, unbeknownst to many, are reshaping the world power map far beyond the burning region. These two seemingly unrelated realities are, in fact, part of a larger ongoing narrative: about a world order that is shedding its skin, and about who will emerge as the winner from this painful transition. Three analysts from three different perspectives offer a reading map that, when placed side by side, forms a more complete picture than any single viewpoint could provide. Asia Grows Amid Fires Lit by the West Dmitry Kosyrev, a columnist for RIA Novosti, opens his analysis with a contradiction he finds in two publications released almost simultaneously. The New York Times reports horrors in Asia due to the war in the Middle East: up to 40 per cent of petrol stations closed in Laos, shortages of liquefied natural gas in Nepal, emergency holidays announced in Sri Lanka, and protests beginning to erupt in the Philippines and Thailand. Meanwhile, the Boao Forum for Asia report, compiled by a group of international experts, instead depicts Asia as a region on an unstoppable trajectory of resurgence. Kosyrev does not turn a blind eye to the real suffering experienced in South Asia. However, he refuses to read the overall picture through the lens of momentary panic. For him, what is far more significant is the structural trend unfolding beneath the surface of the crisis: “This region is increasingly able to perform better without the West.” In 2023, Asian economies were 56.3 per cent interdependent in foreign trade. That figure rose to 57.2 per cent in 2024, and this trend, according to Kosyrev, will not reverse. This is where his analysis becomes most provocative. He poses a question that he himself calls a “conspiracy theory,” but then shows why the question is worth asking: is the oil shock originating from the Middle East deliberately designed to hit Asia, particularly China, as an attempt to slow its rise? Kosyrev’s own answer contains deep irony. “Conspiracy theories always fail because they are too logical and rational, down to the smallest detail,” he writes. “In real life, the element of stupidity is unavoidable: for example, they misjudged Iran’s resistance, both military and civilian. They overestimated their own military capabilities, triggering a severe domestic crisis in the United States.”