Traders Predict Rise in Basic Commodity Prices Ahead of Eid

The Indonesian Market Traders Association (IKAPPI) estimates that several essential commodities will experience significant price increases ahead of Eid al-Fitr.

“The IKAPPI central board projects that the peak of high basic commodity prices will occur in the lead-up to this year’s Eid al-Fitr,” said IKAPPI Secretary-General Reynaldi Sarijowan in a written statement on Monday, 16 March 2026.

The basic commodities potentially facing price increases ahead of Eid include red bird’s eye chillies, large red chillies, garlic, chicken, eggs, and bulk cooking oil.

Red bird’s eye chillies are estimated to reach 105,000 rupiah per kilogram. Should this projection materialise, the price will exceed the government-set reference purchase price (HAP) of 40,000–57,000 rupiah per kilogram. According to Trade Ministry data, the national average price for red bird’s eye chillies as of 16 March 2026 stood at 79,013 rupiah per kilogram.

Large red chillies are estimated to reach 69,000 rupiah per kilogram ahead of Eid. This price will surpass the consumer-level HAP set at 37,000–55,000 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for large red chillies as of 16 March 2026 remains within the HAP range at 45,707 rupiah per kilogram.

Onion prices are estimated to reach 56,000 rupiah per kilogram. This projection will exceed the HAP set at 36,500–41,500 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for onions as of 16 March 2026 remains within the HAP range at 40,164 rupiah per kilogram.

Garlic is another commodity estimated to surge to 45,000 rupiah per kilogram. This price exceeds the HAP set at 38,000 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for garlic as of 16 March 2026 was recorded below the HAP at 36,195 rupiah per kilogram.

Chicken is the fourth commodity forecast to experience a price surge, potentially reaching 50,000 rupiah per kilogram. Chicken prices have already risen and exceed the HAP set at 40,000 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for chicken as of 16 March 2026 stood at 41,076 rupiah per kilogram.

Egg prices are also predicted to surge to 32,000 rupiah per kilogram. If the prediction holds, egg prices will exceed the HAP set at 30,000 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for eggs as of 16 March 2026 was recorded at 31,132 rupiah per kilogram.

The last commodity estimated to experience a price increase is bulk cooking oil at 21,000 rupiah per kilogram. Its price will jump above the maximum retail price (HET) set at 15,500 rupiah per kilogram. The national average price for bulk cooking oil as of 16 March 2026 has already exceeded the HET at 18,756 rupiah per kilogram.

Reynaldi also cautioned the government to anticipate potential price increases following Eid, specifically from the third to seventh day after Eid al-Fitr. “This is due to market traders returning from holiday journeys,” Reynaldi said.