Trade surplus to fall by 42 percent this year
Trade surplus to fall by 42 percent this year
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's trade surplus is projected to decline by 42 percent this year to US$4.65 billion from $8.07 billion last year as a result of the faster growth of imports relative to exports, according to the Indonesian Importers Association.
Association chairman Amirudin Saud said yesterday that, despite the expected drop this year, the trade surplus is likely to increase to at least $6.2 billion in 1996.
Amirudin forecast that the growth rate for exports, which stands at 8.5 percent this year, is likely to double next year to a level of 17 percent, bringing home $50.85 billion in revenue.
Meanwhile, imports may increase by some 15 percent next year -- as compared with this year's growth rate of 21.3 percent -- to reach $44.63 billion. Imports totaled $38.8 billion this year.
Amirudin noted that some $20 billion of this year's imports were in the non-L/C (non-letter-of-credit) category, as is usual for shipments of capital goods.
This year saw significant increases in imports of both capital goods and consumer products, with capital goods contributing 22 percent of this year's total imports and consumer goods 4 percent.
"I think it would be better if the government raised import duties or imposed surcharges on consumer goods, in order to discourage imports," Amirudin said.
He warned that imports of consumer goods could increase further next year if the government failed to take steps to curb them.
"We have to promote our own products so that our people will love buying and using locally-made products," Amirudin said.
However, he disagreed with those observers who, citing the record high levels of foreign investment approvals, predict a further increase in imports of capital goods next year.
According to the Investment Coordinating Board, foreign direct investment approvals reached $38.5 billion in the period between Jan. 1 and Nov. 15, this year, nearly double last year's record figure of $23.7 billion.
Boycott
Amirudin announced yesterday that his association was withdrawing its threat to boycott imports from Australia.
In August the association threatened to boycott imports from Australia following incidents in which the Indonesian flag was burned during demonstrations in Australia.
"We learned that the relationship between the Indonesian and Australian government was getting better. Therefore, we decided to withdraw the threat," Amirudin said.
He projected that Indonesia's exports to Australia would remain flat this year and next year, while imports from Australia are expected to rise further.
Indonesia's imports from Australia are likely to exceed $2 billion this year, compared with $1.54 billion last year, while 1994 exports to Australia are expected to remain at last year's level of about $700 million.
Indonesia's imports from Australia consist mostly of agricultural commodities, including meat, wool, cotton, milk and fruit.(rid)