Trade surplus to fall by 42 percent this year
Trade surplus to fall by 42 percent this year
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's trade surplus is projected to
decline by 42 percent this year to US$4.65 billion from $8.07
billion last year as a result of the faster growth of imports
relative to exports, according to the Indonesian Importers
Association.
Association chairman Amirudin Saud said yesterday that,
despite the expected drop this year, the trade surplus is likely
to increase to at least $6.2 billion in 1996.
Amirudin forecast that the growth rate for exports, which
stands at 8.5 percent this year, is likely to double next year to
a level of 17 percent, bringing home $50.85 billion in revenue.
Meanwhile, imports may increase by some 15 percent next year
-- as compared with this year's growth rate of 21.3 percent --
to reach $44.63 billion. Imports totaled $38.8 billion this year.
Amirudin noted that some $20 billion of this year's imports
were in the non-L/C (non-letter-of-credit) category, as is usual
for shipments of capital goods.
This year saw significant increases in imports of both capital
goods and consumer products, with capital goods contributing 22
percent of this year's total imports and consumer goods 4
percent.
"I think it would be better if the government raised import
duties or imposed surcharges on consumer goods, in order to
discourage imports," Amirudin said.
He warned that imports of consumer goods could increase
further next year if the government failed to take steps to curb
them.
"We have to promote our own products so that our people will
love buying and using locally-made products," Amirudin said.
However, he disagreed with those observers who, citing the
record high levels of foreign investment approvals, predict a
further increase in imports of capital goods next year.
According to the Investment Coordinating Board, foreign direct
investment approvals reached $38.5 billion in the period between
Jan. 1 and Nov. 15, this year, nearly double last year's record
figure of $23.7 billion.
Boycott
Amirudin announced yesterday that his association was
withdrawing its threat to boycott imports from Australia.
In August the association threatened to boycott imports from
Australia following incidents in which the Indonesian flag was
burned during demonstrations in Australia.
"We learned that the relationship between the Indonesian and
Australian government was getting better. Therefore, we decided
to withdraw the threat," Amirudin said.
He projected that Indonesia's exports to Australia would
remain flat this year and next year, while imports from Australia
are expected to rise further.
Indonesia's imports from Australia are likely to exceed $2
billion this year, compared with $1.54 billion last year, while
1994 exports to Australia are expected to remain at last year's
level of about $700 million.
Indonesia's imports from Australia consist mostly of
agricultural commodities, including meat, wool, cotton, milk and
fruit.(rid)