Trade surplus shrinks, economist highlights risks of current account deficit
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Chief Economist of Trimegah Sekuritas Indonesia, Fakhrul Fulvian, has highlighted the potential widening of the current account deficit (CAD) in the second quarter of 2026, following a narrowing trade surplus caused by a surge in oil and gas imports and high global energy prices.
As information, the trade surplus in April 2026 was recorded at US$89.1 million, a significant decrease compared to the previous month’s surplus of US$3.32 billion.
“In recent years, Indonesia has been relatively aided by large commodity trade surpluses. However, as energy prices rise and oil and gas imports increase, that cushion is beginning to thin. If this trend continues, we could potentially see a widening of the current account deficit in the second quarter of this year,” Faklar said in an official statement in Jakarta on Wednesday.
Exports grew strongly to US$25.30 billion, an increase of 21.98 per cent year-on-year (yoy). On the other hand, imports surged to US$25.21 billion, an increase of 22.49 per cent year-on-year.
Fakhrul warned that the market’s primary concern is no longer merely the scale of Indonesia’s exports, but the speed at which oil and gas imports are eroding the trade surplus. He highlighted a significant increase in oil and gas imports, which rose by more than 80 per cent year-on-year to reach US$4.60 billion in April 2026.
“This surge primarily stems from the sharp increase in petroleum product and crude oil imports due to rising energy needs and the impact of the war in the Middle East on global oil prices,” he said.
The deficit in Indonesia’s oil and gas sector in April 2026 reached US$3.44 billion. Meanwhile, the non-oil and gas surplus of US$3.53 billion was almost entirely utilised to cover energy import requirements. As a result, the national trade surplus was left at only approximately US$89 million.
According to Fakhrul, this condition requires attention because goods trade is the fundamental pillar of Indonesia’s current account. He noted that the risk is increasingly relevant as energy inflation pressures are also becoming visible domestically. Data from May 202int shows that the transport group continues to experience significant price increases, particularly for petrol, diesel, airfares, and lubricants. This indicates that the impact of the war has not yet fully subsided and continues to permeate the domestic economy.
On the other hand, Fakhrul appreciated the resilience of Indonesia’s export performance, with non-oil and gas exports reaching US$24.15 billion in April 2026, growing by 23.36 per cent year-on-year. However, he cautioned that financial markets are typically more sensitive to changes in the balance of payments than to export growth alone.
According to Fakhrul, investors are now closely monitoring Indonesia’s ability to generate sufficient foreign exchange surpluses to meet external financing needs. “When the trade surplus drops from billions of dollars to just tens of millions in a single month, the market will certainly begin to question the future direction of the current account,” he added.
Therefore, Fakhrul urged improvements in the macroeconomic policy mix. He also reminded that rupiah stability cannot be supported by monetary policy alone; furthermore, improving the structure of the balance of payments is considered a priority.
“In this context, a more credible yield curve and aligned fiscal policy will be vital to maintaining investor confidence. The need for funding from financial markets will increase if the widening of the current account deficit truly occurs in the second quarter of 2026. Thus, policy credibility will become an increasingly decisive factor. We are entering a different phase compared to the last two years. Previously, we enjoyed the benefits of high commodity prices. Now, we face a combination of rising energy prices, prolonged war, and increasing import needs. Therefore, managing the balance of payments and rupiah stability must be the top priority in the coming months,” Fakhrul concluded.