Trade Minister Reveals Causes of Trade Deficit

Trade Minister Budi Santoso has revealed that the rise in global oil prices due to the escalation of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is one of the significant causes of Indonesia’s increasing import values and the pressure on its trade balance.

Budi explained that global oil prices in February 2026 were still in the range of 60-65 US dollars per barrel. However, since the escalation of conflict in March 2026, oil prices have continued to climb and fluctuate until mid-year.

Based on World Bank data as of 2 July 2026, global oil prices in April-May 2026 exceeded 100 US dollars per barrel.

“April-May was the peak period of high global oil prices, reaching around 110 US dollars per barrel. With this situation, the unit value of imports per tonne in May increased and has continued into June,” Budi said in a statement on Tuesday, 11 August 2026.

According to him, the rise in global oil prices has had a direct impact on the unit value of imports per tonne, particularly for oil and gas commodities. In March 2026, the unit value of oil and gas imports was recorded at 689 US dollars per tonne.

That value then increased to 1,042 US dollars per tonne in May 2026, before falling to 869 US dollars per tonne in June 2026.

The rise in oil prices has also affected the unit value of non-oil and gas commodity imports. The Ministry of Trade recorded the unit value of non-oil and gas imports in March 2026 at 968 US dollars per tonne, increasing to 1,081 US dollars per tonne in June 2026.

Overall, Indonesia’s unit value of imports for oil and gas and non-oil and gas commodities increased from 907 US dollars per tonne in March 2026 to 1,036 US dollars per tonne in June 2026.

“If we compare the unit value of imports per tonne in March with June, the increase reached 14.24 percent. This is one of the reasons why our import values have become higher,” he explained.

The increase in import values has also put pressure on Indonesia’s trade balance. Previously, Indonesia’s trade balance in June 2026 still recorded a deficit of 0.45 billion US dollars, although it improved compared to the deficit of 1.61 billion US dollars in May 2026.

On the other hand, the government continues to encourage increased exports to strengthen the trade balance. Budi said the Ministry of Trade is optimising various priority programmes, especially through expanding export market access.