Trade Minister Optimistic Trade Balance Will Return to Surplus

Minister of Trade Budi Santoso is optimistic that Indonesia’s trade balance will return to surplus in June 2026 after recording a deficit of 1.61 billion US dollars in May, as global oil prices begin to decline. The previous deficit was driven by high oil prices that inflated the cost of oil and gas imports.

“Hopefully next month it will be back to normal, as oil prices have started to fall,” Minister Budi Santoso said at Trans Studio Mall Cibubur on Thursday.

He was responding to a report from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) which showed the trade balance slipped into a 1.61 billion US dollar deficit in May 2026, ending a surplus trend that had been maintained since May 2020.

According to Budi, the deficit was triggered by soaring global oil prices, which pushed up the value of oil and gas imports. The peak in oil prices during March and April continued to impact the trade balance in May.

“Prices peaked in March to April. So it was really due to the very high oil prices. Our non-oil and gas trade balance actually recorded a surplus of 2.15 billion US dollars, but the oil and gas deficit was quite high at 3.7 billion US dollars,” Budi explained.

He further noted that Indonesia’s overall foreign trade performance remains in positive territory. Cumulatively, from January to May 2026, the trade balance still recorded a surplus of 4.01 billion US dollars.

“So it was only in May, but the cumulative figure from January to May is still in surplus and exports continue to rise,” Budi stated. He expressed hope that the deficit is only temporary, as global oil prices are now showing a downward trend.