Track records not campaigns likely to convice the voters

Track records not campaigns likely to convice the voters

Imanuddin Razak, Jakarta

Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid's disqualification as a
presidential candidate leaves five pairs of running mates to
contest the July 5 presidential election.

In the beginning, it was not that difficult to foretell who
had the best chance of becoming president. Polls and surveys,
with all the pluses and minuses they entail, named certain
figures as the strongest contenders.

Hidayat Nurwahid of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS)
achieved the best outcome in several surveys, but the PKS later
announced Hidayat would not enter the race and it would throw its
weight behind another party's candidate.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former security minister in
President Megawati Soekarnoputri's Cabinet and leader of the
Democratic Party, benefited most from the PKS' withdrawal.

Yet, the political mood shifted when Megawati, incumbent
President and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P)
presidential candidate, announced on May 6, she would pair with
Hasyim Muzadi, chairman of the country's largest Muslim
organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

Picking Hasyim as her running mate was indeed a clever move by
Megawati, whose PDI-P won the second largest number of votes in
April. She hopes to draw on the massive support of the 40-million
strong NU, a traditional organization that operates on the basis
of patronage, besides the Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party
(PDS).

Yet, it remains doubtful whether the pair can win maximum
support from the NU, as it has been reported that most senior NU
ulemas did not support Hasyim to pair with Megawati over a number
of fundamental Islamic issues.

The decision by Susilo -- whose individual popularity helped
boost the Democratic Party's achievement in the April 5 election
-- to name similarly popular fellow-former-Cabinet-member Jusuf
Kalla as his running mate on the following day, is unlikely to
draw NU support that matches that of the Megawati-Hasyim duo.

Kalla, despite his status as an NU official of the
organization's South Sulawesi chapter, will not be a great bonus
in the effort to secure NU votes.

The Muslim-based Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Indonesian
Justice and Unity Party (PKP Indonesia) have indeed expressed
their support of Susilo, but the two parties' achievements in the
April 5 election are not signs that they are able to boost
Susilo's popularity.

Susilo's chance is even slimmer with the victory of Gen. (ret)
Wiranto -- his senior during their military days -- to secure a
ticket for the presidential race during the Golkar convention.
The Golkar Party garnered the most votes in the April 5
legislative election. Wiranto graduated from the National
Military Academy in 1967, while Susilo graduated from the academy
in 1973.

Another candidate, Agum Gumelar, has a military background.
Yet, Agum, coupled with presidential candidate Hamzah Haz of the
United Development Party (PPP), has long been distanced from
military headquarters as he has been in the Cabinet for the past
five years.

And then, there is the "Hamzah-Haz factor". His controversial
statements on religious issues, and his personal life -- despite
the fact that PPP won the fourth largest number of votes on April
5 -- are not likely to conjure up any more support for the pair
than that which the PPP enjoyed in the legislative election.

Back to Wiranto, whose chance became greater after he named
then deputy chairman of the National Commission on Human Rights
(Komnas HAM) and then leader of NU, Solahuddin Wahid, as his
running mate.

Solahuddin, who is also the younger brother of Abdurrahman
Wahid, has defended Wiranto, saying that the allegations of human
rights abuses were never proved in a court.

And, unlike Hasyim Muzadi, Solahuddin has won the support of
senior and influential NU clerics, known as kyai khos, in his
vice presidential bid.

The proof of strong NU support for Solahuddin (and Wiranto) is
the inclusion of key National Awakening Party (PKB) and NU
officials in Wiranto's campaign team, such as Arifin Junaedi,
Muhaimin Iskandar, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, and also a key
Golkar lobbyist who has NU roots, Slamet Effendy Yusuf.

Also necessary to bear in mind is the endorsement of
Solahuddin's brother, Gus Dur. While he said he would not vote in
the election in protest over his disqualification, he has, since
the beginning, been in close contact with Wiranto.

The only pair that could match Wiranto-Solahuddin is likely
Amien Rais and Siswono Yudohusodo.

With the country's second largest Muslim organization,
Muhammadiyah, having expressed its support for National Mandate
Party (PAN) leader Amien Rais, who is also a former Muhammadiyah
chairman, the Amien-Siswono pair has turned out to be the dark
horse of the election.

And PAN's strategic alliance with smaller but influential
parties -- New Indonesia Alliance Party (PPIB), Indonesian
Democratic Vanguard Party (PPDI), Social Democratic Labor Party
(PBSD), Indonesian Unity Party (PSI), Freedom Bull National Party
(PNBK), Marhaenisme Indonesian National Party (PNI Marhaenisme)
-- all with socialist-nationalist roots -- key elements in
helping the establishment of the Republic of Indonesia after its
1945 independence -- could help boost the pair's chance.

After learning background information and facts about the five
pairs, it then rests on the voters to decide on the country's
leadership for the next five years.

There is still more than a month left for the candidates to
win further support by campaigning. Yet, it will likely be the
candidates' track records that speak to the voters.

The legislative election showed that doubts over Indonesians'
political maturity were groundless. Despite the scale and
attractiveness of certain campaigns, many voters picked "rising
stars" -- the PKS and the Democratic Party -- rather than "old
players", the PDI-P and Golkar Party.

Imanuddin Razak (iman@thejakartapost.com) is staff writer of
The Jakarta Post