Track records not campaigns likely to convice the voters

Imanuddin Razak, Jakarta

Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid's disqualification as a presidential candidate leaves five pairs of running mates to contest the July 5 presidential election.

In the beginning, it was not that difficult to foretell who had the best chance of becoming president. Polls and surveys, with all the pluses and minuses they entail, named certain figures as the strongest contenders.

Hidayat Nurwahid of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) achieved the best outcome in several surveys, but the PKS later announced Hidayat would not enter the race and it would throw its weight behind another party's candidate.

Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former security minister in President Megawati Soekarnoputri's Cabinet and leader of the Democratic Party, benefited most from the PKS' withdrawal.

Yet, the political mood shifted when Megawati, incumbent President and Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) presidential candidate, announced on May 6, she would pair with Hasyim Muzadi, chairman of the country's largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

Picking Hasyim as her running mate was indeed a clever move by Megawati, whose PDI-P won the second largest number of votes in April. She hopes to draw on the massive support of the 40-million strong NU, a traditional organization that operates on the basis of patronage, besides the Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party (PDS).

Yet, it remains doubtful whether the pair can win maximum support from the NU, as it has been reported that most senior NU ulemas did not support Hasyim to pair with Megawati over a number of fundamental Islamic issues.

The decision by Susilo -- whose individual popularity helped boost the Democratic Party's achievement in the April 5 election -- to name similarly popular fellow-former-Cabinet-member Jusuf Kalla as his running mate on the following day, is unlikely to draw NU support that matches that of the Megawati-Hasyim duo.

Kalla, despite his status as an NU official of the organization's South Sulawesi chapter, will not be a great bonus in the effort to secure NU votes.

The Muslim-based Crescent Star Party (PBB) and the Indonesian Justice and Unity Party (PKP Indonesia) have indeed expressed their support of Susilo, but the two parties' achievements in the April 5 election are not signs that they are able to boost Susilo's popularity.

Susilo's chance is even slimmer with the victory of Gen. (ret) Wiranto -- his senior during their military days -- to secure a ticket for the presidential race during the Golkar convention. The Golkar Party garnered the most votes in the April 5 legislative election. Wiranto graduated from the National Military Academy in 1967, while Susilo graduated from the academy in 1973.

Another candidate, Agum Gumelar, has a military background. Yet, Agum, coupled with presidential candidate Hamzah Haz of the United Development Party (PPP), has long been distanced from military headquarters as he has been in the Cabinet for the past five years.

And then, there is the "Hamzah-Haz factor". His controversial statements on religious issues, and his personal life -- despite the fact that PPP won the fourth largest number of votes on April 5 -- are not likely to conjure up any more support for the pair than that which the PPP enjoyed in the legislative election.

Back to Wiranto, whose chance became greater after he named then deputy chairman of the National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) and then leader of NU, Solahuddin Wahid, as his running mate.

Solahuddin, who is also the younger brother of Abdurrahman Wahid, has defended Wiranto, saying that the allegations of human rights abuses were never proved in a court.

And, unlike Hasyim Muzadi, Solahuddin has won the support of senior and influential NU clerics, known as kyai khos, in his vice presidential bid.

The proof of strong NU support for Solahuddin (and Wiranto) is the inclusion of key National Awakening Party (PKB) and NU officials in Wiranto's campaign team, such as Arifin Junaedi, Muhaimin Iskandar, Khofifah Indar Parawansa, and also a key Golkar lobbyist who has NU roots, Slamet Effendy Yusuf.

Also necessary to bear in mind is the endorsement of Solahuddin's brother, Gus Dur. While he said he would not vote in the election in protest over his disqualification, he has, since the beginning, been in close contact with Wiranto.

The only pair that could match Wiranto-Solahuddin is likely Amien Rais and Siswono Yudohusodo.

With the country's second largest Muslim organization, Muhammadiyah, having expressed its support for National Mandate Party (PAN) leader Amien Rais, who is also a former Muhammadiyah chairman, the Amien-Siswono pair has turned out to be the dark horse of the election.

And PAN's strategic alliance with smaller but influential parties -- New Indonesia Alliance Party (PPIB), Indonesian Democratic Vanguard Party (PPDI), Social Democratic Labor Party (PBSD), Indonesian Unity Party (PSI), Freedom Bull National Party (PNBK), Marhaenisme Indonesian National Party (PNI Marhaenisme) -- all with socialist-nationalist roots -- key elements in helping the establishment of the Republic of Indonesia after its 1945 independence -- could help boost the pair's chance.

After learning background information and facts about the five pairs, it then rests on the voters to decide on the country's leadership for the next five years.

There is still more than a month left for the candidates to win further support by campaigning. Yet, it will likely be the candidates' track records that speak to the voters.

The legislative election showed that doubts over Indonesians' political maturity were groundless. Despite the scale and attractiveness of certain campaigns, many voters picked "rising stars" -- the PKS and the Democratic Party -- rather than "old players", the PDI-P and Golkar Party.

Imanuddin Razak (iman@thejakartapost.com) is staff writer of The Jakarta Post