TOURISE and Oxford Economics Release New Global Report on Tourism Resilience in an Era of Permanent Disruption
New analysis shows that destinations willing to take risks recover up to 1.5 times faster, with global recovery times cut from 24 months to just 10 months. TOURISE, in partnership with Oxford Economics, has released a new publication, “Resilience in an Unchanged World: Transforming Tourism for an Era of Permanent Disruption.” An analysis of 85 major crises over two decades shows a clear pattern: in a world marked by relentless shocks, destinations that act before disruption occurs recover up to 1.5 times faster than those that simply wait.
“In a world that experiences no change between crises, disruption becomes a permanent feature of the global tourism landscape,” said Ahmed Al-Khateeb, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Tourism and Chairman of TOURISE. “The true test for destinations lies in how they prepare for instability, maintain traveller confidence, and sustain operational continuity ahead of such events.”
Highlighting the current Middle East crisis, with Gulf aviation hubs handling around 14 per cent of global transit traffic, the report provides practical guidance for investors and policymakers navigating a system where disruption is increasingly commonplace. Key findings include:
Three scenarios, one conclusion: recovery depends on confidence, connectivity, and affordability. The report models three scenarios for the current Middle East crisis. If the ceasefire holds, global travel is expected to grow by around 6 per cent in 2026; if hostilities resume, that figure will fall by around 1 per cent; and under prolonged disruption, global travel will shrink by around 3 per cent and remain subdued until 2027. In every scenario, the report concludes that recovery depends more on how quickly confidence, connectivity, and affordability can be restored than on the crisis itself.
Confidence now moves faster than people themselves. In 2025, viral rumours of a massive earthquake triggered a 50 per cent drop in bookings from several East Asian markets despite having no scientific basis, demonstrating how misinformation can suppress demand even before any physical disruption occurs.
Tourism recovers faster, but systemic crises are now the new test. Average recovery times have fallen from around 24 months in the early 2000s to 10 to 12 months today. However, increasingly complex cross-border disruptions are beginning to slow this trend.
Preparation is needed to stay ahead. Saudi Arabia welcomed 37.2 million tourists in the first quarter of 2026, an 8 per cent year-on-year increase amid regional turmoil, reaching its target of 100 million annual visitors seven years early. This demonstrates how diversification within the Saudi Vision 2030 framework translates into measurable resilience.
“Global tourism has proven remarkably resilient, reaching a record 1.52 billion international tourist arrivals in 2025, despite a decade marked by natural and man-made disasters,” said Adam Sacks, President of Tourism Economics. “The lesson is that resilience can be built before disruption occurs, through preparatory measures undertaken by destinations. In a world that no longer experiences full recovery between crises, preparedness has become the primary benchmark of competitiveness.”
The full report is now available at www.TOURISE.com.